Fresh off handing champions Sporting Lisbon their first league defeat of the season, Benfica travel to Vitoria de Guimaraes on Wednesday for the final game of the domestic league season.
Despite a strong run of form in the final month of the season, the consistency of rivals Porto meant that the visitors can no longer finish in the top two of the Primeira Liga table, although they will still be desperate to finish the league campaign with a third straight league victory as they go into the Taca de Portugal final on Sunday.
Match preview
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Vitoria de Guimaraes went into Sunday's clash against Maritimo knowing that two victories from their last two games of the season would guarantee them a top-six finish.
However, Os Vimaranenses were unable to break the deadlock against the 13th-placed side, as the game finished goalless.
While they remain in sixth spot, Vitoria now sit level on points with seventh-placed Santa Clara, meaning that they will lose their position in the top six if Daniel Ramos's men better their result on the final day of the season.
The Guimaraes outfit's spot has come up for contention due to their poor form in the last few months, having won just three of their 18 games since the beginning of February, while picking up just 14 points in that time.
That poor form has resulted in the departure of both Joao Henriques and Bino, with Moreno stepping up to take charge of the first team for the final stage of the campaign.
While they have displayed the form of a relegation-threatened side rather than a team pushing for a top-six finish recently, Os Vimaranenses remain in pole position for the spot, and will seal that finish if they win Wednesday's game, or match Santa Clara's result.
That will be no easy task though, as they take on a Benfica side who have won five of their last six matches in the Portuguese top flight coming into the final day of the season.
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Benfica took on newly-crowned champions Sporting Lisbon at home on Saturday, in a Lisbon derby between two sides in strong runs of form.
As Aguias got off to the perfect start as they took a three-goal lead in the first half through Haris Seferovic, Pizzi and Lucas Verissimo, before Pedro Goncalves pulled a goal back for the visitors on the stroke of half time.
Seferovic would go on to restore their three-goal lead early in the second half with his second goal of the match, and Jorge Jesus's side held on for the victory despite late goals from Nuno Santos and Goncalves to pull the game back to 4-3.
Unfortunately for the 37-time Primeira Liga champions, Porto's victory on Saturday meant that they can no longer achieve a second-placed finish, while they sit 10 points clear of fourth-placed Braga.
Nevertheless, having won five of their last six games and drawn the other with Porto, Jesus's side will still be keen to finish the league season with a win to stretch their impressive run of form, building more momentum as they go into a crucial game with Braga in the Taca de Portugal final on Sunday.
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Team News
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Vitoria de Guimaraes will remain without midfielder Joseph Amoah through injury, although Jacob Maddox was fit enough to make then bench last time out after long term spell on the sidelines alongside Amoah.
They will welcome winger Ricardo Quaresma and midfielder Andre Andre back from suspensions, boosting competition for starting spots, although Moreno could stick with Marcus Edwards and Diogo Rochinha.
The new manager opted to start Bruno Duarte in the centre-forward role last time out in place of Oscar Estupinan, who has gone through somewhat of a dry spell, having failed to score in his last eight league appearances after a prolific start to life in Guimaraes as he netted eight goals in his first 14 games.
Benfica will remain without Andreas Samaris, Joao Ferreira and Andre Almeida through injury, while Rafa Silva and Adel Taarabt both returned to the squad for the recent Lisbon derby following spells out of action.
With little to play for in the league other than the highest possible points tally, coupled with the cup final approaching on Sunday, Jesus could look to rotate his side on Wednesday to ensure his key players are fresh for the crucial game at the weekend.
That could see the likes of Taarabt, Julian Weigl, Pizzi and Haris Seferovic dropped to the bench, with the latter firing in 20 goals alongside seven assists in 30 league games this season.
In their place, Pedrinho, Luca Waldschmidt, Darwin Nunez and Gabriel Pires could all come into the side for the final league game of the campaign.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Fernandes, Amaro, Mumin; Sacko, Andre, Pepelu, Mensah; Edwards, Duarte, Rochinha
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Leite; Verissimo, Otamendi, Vertonghen; Goncalves, Gabriel, Pedrinho, Grimaldo; Nunez, Waldschmidt, Everton
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 0-2 Benfica
The two sides come into this game in opposite runs of form, and we do not see the hosts pulling off a surprise result on Wednesday.
After an inconsistent run of form towards the beginning of the calendar year, Benfica have managed to hit their stride again, and they should not slow down as they aim to build momentum going into the cup final this weekend.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.89%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 17.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.55%) and 0-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 2-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
