Mainz 05 host Schalke 04 as the two sides bottom of the 2020-21 Bundesliga table look for their first win of the campaign.
Mainz's 3-1 defeat at Augsburg sees them remain without a point this season, while Schalke's 1-1 draw at home to Stuttgart keeps them to within a win from potentially moving out of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Mainz have had a simply shambolic start to the season, losing all six of their matches, having sacked Achim Beierlorzer at the end of September.
Jan-Moritz Lichte has proved a questionable replacement so far, though, losing all four of his matches since taking over. Despite going into the break 1-0 down at Augsburg last week through a superb overhead kick from Ruben Vargas, Mainz had looked like gaining their first point of the season when Karim Onisiwo levelled the match in the second half after a brilliant counter attack in which Levin Oztunali accurately found the striker from the right touchline.
However, sloppy defending allowed Andre Hahn to fire into the bottom corner in the 80th minute after unselfish play from Alfred Finnbogason teed him up with a knockdown, before Noah Sarenren Bazee strolled through a tiring defence in injury time to square for Hahn to seal the three points with his second of the game.
Lichte must ensure his defence do not give up chances as easily against a side they look almost certain to be competing for survival with this season.
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Having gained two points from their last three league matches, as well as winning a midweek cup tie at FC Schweinfurt, Manuel Baum may feel his side are on the cusp of gaining their first Bundesliga win since January.
Schalke fans dared to dream of ending the long drought against Stuttgart last weekend when Malick Thiaw's diving header gave his side the lead heading into the half-time interval. However, the newly-promoted outfit were an entirely different proposition after the break, with Nicholas Gonzalez converting a penalty after Salif Sane had clearly handled a shot which looked goalbound.
Ultimately, Baum was probably relieved to take the point and move on after Gonzalo Castro was denied from distance late in the match with Stuttgart rallying for a winner.
He will be hoping his side can build on their improving results by putting distance between themselves and Mainz with a first Bundesliga win for almost ten months.
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LLLLLL
Schalke 04 Bundesliga form: LLLDLD
Schalke 04 form (all competitions): LLDLDW
Team News
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Despite remaining without a point in the table, Mainz boss Lichte is in the enviable position of appearing to have no injuries or suspensions to any of his first-team players.
He will surely be tempted to reward Onisiwo with a start after his impact at Augsburg last weekend, with perhaps two up front the way to go against a side he will feel are very beatable.
Ozan Kabak remains suspended for the visitors, meanwhile, with Suat Serdar's hamstring injury keeping him on the sidelines. Andreas Voglsammer is also out with a hairline crack in the foot.
Summer signing Vedad Ibisevic is pushing for a return to the side having scored a brace in the midweek cup win.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St. Juste, Kilian, Niakhate, Brosinski; Latza, Kunde; Oztunali, Quaison; Mateta, Onisiwo
Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Thiaw, Sane, Nastasic; Ludewig, Oczipka, Mascarell, Harit, Bozdogan; Ibisevic, Uth
We say: Mainz 05 1-1 Schalke 04
With defeat disastrous for both sides here, we can see a cagey draw playing out as neither side will want to lose ground on each other in the race to avoid relegation.
Understandably, neither side are playing with much confidence at all at present, so it is unlikely to be one for the purists to savour.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
