FC Koln take on Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with both sides in desperate need of a victory at opposite ends of the table.
The hosts are only one point above the relegation zone, while Dortmund are two points behind fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt as they look to avoid missing out on qualifying for the Champions League.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having taken only one point from their last five games, Markus Gisdol's are now only one point ahead of Hertha Berlin and Mainz 05 in the relegation playoff and first automatic relegation places respectively, with the club in serious danger of slipping back into the second tier of German football once again.
Koln have been relegated five times already this century, never spending more than two seasons in the second tier, so there should be no panic stations regarding the prospect of relegation.
However, it goes without saying that survival is now their only aim between now and the end of the season, with the financial implications of dropping down a division potentially much more damaging during a global pandemic without fans in the ground.
Gisdol's side looked to be benefitting from that once again away to Union Berlin last weekend when Ondrej Duda's penalty gave them a lead to hold onto at half time, but Max Kruse and Christopher Trimmel fired back for the hosts to leave Koln desperately deflated.
They will take confidence from beating Dortmund 2-1 in the reverse fixture, but that was towards the end of Lucien Favre's reign and they will be tougher to beat this time around.
© Reuters
Indeed, while Dortmund are still far from a perfect outfit, only Bayern Munich have beaten them in their last eight matches in all competitions, with Edin Terzic guiding his side to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, the semi-finals of the DFB-Pokal, and within two points of fourth-placed Frankfurt within that timeframe.
It has certainly been a much better month for the 38-year-old and his players, then, with belief of qualifying for the Champions League for a sixth consecutive season restored. BVB showed the type of grit and resolve they were missing earlier in the season to hold out for a 2-0 win over Hertha Berlin last weekend.
Admittedly they were helped by a dreadful mistake by opposing goalkeeper Rune Jarstein, who somehow failed to make any contact with the ball to stop Julian Brandt's effort from distance flying straight through him.
Vladimir Darida's 80th-minute dismissal for a terrible tackle on Marco Reus left the visitors in the lurch, with 16-year-old Youssoufa Moukoko sealing the three points in injury time with his third league goal of the season.
Should Frankfurt drop points at home to Union Berlin, Dortmund can move fourth with a victory in Cologne on Saturday. Terzic will be urging his players to seize any opportunities which come their way between now and the end of the season, with two trophies still to fight for, too.
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Koln will be without Jannes Horn after the defender picked up his fifth caution of the season in the defeat to Union Berlin.
Sebastian Bornauw and Florian Kainz are unlikely to return from injury in time, but should do so after the upcoming international break.
Likewise, England winger Jadon Sancho is unlikely to be risked, with Mats Hummels, Reus, Mateu Morey, Raphael Guerreiro, Manuel Akanji, Axel Witsel and Marcel Schmelzer all significant doubts for Dortmund, too.
Terzic may have plenty of decisions to make as to how to restructure his potentially depleted side, then, with Moukoko and Thomas Delaney two very differing options to come into the XI from last weekend.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T.Horn; Wolf, Mere, Czichos, Katterbach; Skhiri, Hector; Ozcan, Meyer, Rexhbecaj; Duda
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Hitz; Meunier, Can, Zagadou, Schulz; Bellingham, Dahoud, Delaney; Brandt, Hazard; Haaland
We say: FC Koln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
With plenty of first-team players missing for Dortmund, Koln may sense an opportunity to spring another upset against BVB.
However, Gisdol's side are on a dreadful run of form, so will certainly need to up their recent performance levels to keep a side with Erling Braut Haaland up front at bay.
Top tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 15.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a FC Koln win it was 2-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
