Independiente del Valle could seal a spot in the knockout stages of the 2023 Copa Libertadores when they host Corinthians in Wednesday's Group E fixture at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
The hosts occupy second place in the group with six points from their four games so far, while the visitors are down in third place following an unspectacular start.
Match preview
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A trip to Uruguay to meet basement side Liverpool in Group E last month went south within just 45 minutes for Independiente del Valle, who lost goalkeeper Moises Ramirez to a red card for violent conduct on the stroke of half time, and the best efforts of deputy Kleber Pinargote were ultimately not enough.
The 10 men of Independiente del Valle succumbed to a second-half winner from Ruben Bentancourt as their six-game winning streak in all tournaments came to a bitter end, and that continental disappointment appeared to transfer over to their domestic duties in a 3-2 loss to LDU Quito on May 28.
However, Martin Anselmi's side reverted to type on Friday with a 2-0 win over Aucas - who coincidentally had a player of their own sent off just before the break - as they assured themselves of a first-placed finish in the opening stage of the Ecuadorian Serie A season.
With top spot in the league now rubber-stamped ahead of the commencement of the next stage in August, Independiente del Valle can cast their minds over to the Copa Libertadores, where they sit two points better off than Corinthians and can therefore seal a top-three finish with victory on Wednesday.
The unbeaten Argentinos Juniors hold their own two-point lead over the Black-and-Blues, but Independiente would welcome a win for the section leaders against Liverpool, who would also no longer be able to catch the Ecuadorian giants in that scenario if Anselmi's men can put Corinthians to the sword again.
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A far cry from the Corinthians teams of old, this week's visitors are juggling their Copa Libertadores commitments with an early relegation scrap in the Brasileiro, having started the new league campaign in frankly terrible fashion.
With just two wins and eight points to show from their opening nine Brasileiro games in 2023, the side managed by Vanderlei Luxemburgo - who only took the reins a month ago - are dancing with the devil in 16th place in the table, only one point clear of Goias and Atletico Mineiro in the four-team relegation zone.
Following a goalless draw with section leaders Argentinos Juniors on May 25, Corinthians' fortunes appeared to be taking a turn for the better, as Luxemburgo oversaw a 2-0 success over Fluminense - his first league win at the helm - before the People's Team overturned a 2-0 Copa do Brasil deficit against Atletico Mineiro and ended up prevailing on penalties.
However, Corinthians were brought crashing back down to earth in a 2-0 loss to fellow basement battlers America Mineiro on Saturday, leaving them without a win in eight straight away games, and they have now failed to score in five successive road matches during a horrific streak in front of goal.
Two strikes from Lautaro Diaz either side of a Roger Guedes response saw Independiente leave Corinthians' headquarters with a 2-1 win in their maiden group-stage meeting last month, and should the visitors fail to earn a first-ever win over the Black-and-Blues in their fourth attempt, they can kiss their hopes of a last-16 ticket goodbye.
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Team News
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With number one goalkeeper Ramirez now suspended following his red card against Liverpool, his equally youthful backup Pinargote will act as the last line of defence on Wednesday, while centre-back Agustin Garcia Bosso came off injured against Aucas at the weekend and is now a doubt.
Attacking duo Diaz and Kevin Rodriguez are also in the medical bay with muscular and knee injuries respectively, and it remains to be seen if Chelsea-bound Kendry Paez will return following Ecuador's elimination from the Under-20 World Cup earlier this month.
With regards to Corinthians, former Barcelona and Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Paulinho came off with a knee injury in the first half of their draw with Argentinos Juniors on May 24 - another heartbreaking setback for the 34-year-old, who had only just recovered from a severe cruciate ligament problem sustained just over a year ago.
No timeframe has been placed on Paulinho's recovery, but there are fears that he may have to go under the knife again, while Gustavo Mosquito (knee) and Victor Cantillo (thigh) are keeping him company on the sidelines.
Guilherme Biro and Giovane are not expected back just yet following Brazil's Under-20 quarter-final World Cup defeat to Israel, while Corinthians chose not to release Pedrinho for the tournament, but the 17-year-old attacker was only an unused substitute in their most recent Copa outing.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Pinargote; Schunke, Landazuri, Cabezas; Fernandez, Pellerano, Faravelli, Medina; Sornoza, Alcivar; Moreno
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Mendez, Gil, Murillo, Bidu; Fagner, Maycon, Vera, Adson; Guedes, Alberto
We say: Independiente del Valle 2-0 Corinthians
A shot-shy Corinthians simply cannot buy a goal away from the comfort of their own stadium right now, and such frailties should no doubt be taken advantage of by Independiente, even with their first-choice goalkeeper missing.
The hosts can afford to focus all their efforts on the Copa Libertadores with nothing on the line in the league, and we can only envisage the Ecuadorian powerhouses strolling to the win that may or may not book them a spot in the knockout stages depending on results elsewhere.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
