Club America and St Louis City will be looking to book their spot in the quarter-finals of the Leagues Cup when they go head to head at Dignity Health Sports Park on Tuesday.
Both sides squared off in the group stages last season, with the Mexican outfit storming to an emphatic 4-0 victory courtesy of Henry Martin, Julian Quinones, Kevin Alvarez and Alejandro Zendejas.
Match preview
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Club America picked up a dream start to their Leagues Cup campaign as they secured a 2-1 victory over Atlas in their round-of-16 clash at the Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday.
In a thrilling all-Mexican showdown, Erick Sanchez and Mexico international Martin scored on either side of Jose Lozano's 59th-minute equaliser to hand the Eagles a deserved victory.
Before that, Club America were involved in two mid-season friendly games as they suffered a 3-0 defeat against Chelsea on August 1, three days before claiming a 1-0 win over Aston Villa at the Soldier Field Stadium.
Back home, Andre Jardine's men would have hoped for a stronger start to the new Liga MX title defence as they have picked up two wins and lost two of their opening four matches.
Club America did clinch their first-ever Mexican Super Cup title just before the start of the campaign when they claimed a 2-1 victory over Tigres on June 30 thanks to goals from Javairo Dilrosun and Martin.
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St Louis City, on the other hand, cruised through the round of 16 as they picked up a 3-1 victory over fellow MLS side Portland Timbers when the two sides squared off at CityPark on Saturday.
Following a goalless first half, Claudio Bravo scored within three minutes to cancel out Cedric Teuchert's 51st-minute strike, but Marcel Hartel and Simon Becher scored late goals to hand the hosts the desired result.
This followed a decent run in the group stages, where St Louis City picked up three points from their two matches to finish as runners-up in Group F, just one point behind first-placed Juarez.
Goals from Teuchert and Hartel helped John Hackworth's men fight back from behind to claim a 2-1 victory over Dallas in the group opener on July 28, seven days before falling to penalty-shootout defeat against Juarez after a 1-1 stalemate with the Mexican side in normal time.
While St Louis have enjoyed a solid Leagues Cup run, they have struggled to impose themselves in MLS, where they have picked up just four wins this season and currently sit 13th in the Eastern Conference table, 10 points off the playoffs qualifier places.
The Missouri outfit head into Tuesday's clash without a competitive win on their travels this year, losing seven and claiming six draws in 13 games — their last away victory came in September 2023, when they edged out Minnesota United 2-1 at Allianz Field.
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Team News
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Club America will take to the pitch without the services of American midfielder Zendejas, who has missed the last five matches after sustaining a leg injury in July.
Spanish defender Jorge Mere, who returned from his loan stint with Cadiz in June, is currently recuperating from a cruciate ligament injury while Sebastian Caceres is a doubt after coming off injured midway through the game against Atlas last time out.
With his strike against Atlas, Martin now had 28 goal involvements for club and country this year and the 31-year-old striker will be one to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, St Louis City remain without several players down the spine of the team as Joakim Nilsson (hamstring), Joao Klauss (knee) and Tomas Ostrak (ankle) continue their spells on the sidelines.
Brazilian midfielder Clio Pompeu has missed each of the last 11 games since coming off injured against FC Dallas on June 16 while Rasmus Alm is recovering from a knee problem.
Club America possible starting lineup:
Malagon; I Reyes, Lichnovsky, Araujo, Borja; Dos Santos, Fidalgo; Dilrosun, Sanchez, Rodriguez; Martin
St Louis City possible starting lineup:
Burki; Totland, Yaro, Parker, Reid; Blom, Pearce; Klein, Lowen, Vassilev; Thorisson
We say: Club America 3-1 St Louis City
The last meeting between the two teams saw Club America pick up a dominant victory and the Mexican champion will be looking to replicate that performance on Tuesday. Jardine's men have proven that they can compete against the best teams and we are tipping them to see off a St Louis side who have been poor on the road this year.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club America win with a probability of 73.39%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 10.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club America win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 3-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.3%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club America would win this match.
Joshua Ojele
