Borussia Monchengladbach host Wolfsburg at Borussia-Park on Saturday as the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign resumes following the international break.
The hosts have had a mixed start so far, winning one, drawing one and losing one of their opening three games, while the visitors are simultaneously unbeaten and winless after three consecutive draws.
Match preview
© Reuters
Marco Rose's side finished fourth in last season's Bundesliga to secure Champions League football for the first time since finishing third in the 2016-17 group stage of the competition, and the 44-year-old may have Wednesday's testing trip to Inter Milan in the back of his mind heading into this match.
However, first and foremost he will be looking to help secure his side a first home win of the season in order to move up the table. A win could take Gladbach level on points with first place, although that would rely on the unlikelihood of no side above eighth winning this weekend.
Alassane Plea opened his league account for the season in the 3-1 win at FC Koln prior to the international break; his side's hopes will hinge heavily on him and his compatriot and strike partner Marcus Thuram.
The dynamic French duo both scored 10 league goals last campaign and are a threat to any side on their day with their superb pace, movement and interplay. Neither take up a fixed central position so are very difficult to track, with the likes of Lars Stindl and Jonas Hofmann capable of making dangerous third-man runs into the opposition penalty area, too.
© Reuters
However, Wolfsburg have their own forward who can strike fear into any opponent in the shape of Wout Weghorst. Standing at 6ft 6in tall and possessing a hammer of a right foot, the Dutch striker is a handful for any opponent when in form; only Robert Lewandowski, Timo Werner and Jadon Sancho scored more goals in the Bundesliga last season.
Surprisingly, though, he is yet to get off the mark in the league this season. He has hardly been helped by his teammates, though, with a 1-1 draw at SC Freiburg sandwiched by two scoreless draws against Bayer Leverkusen and Augsburg respectively.
Indeed, while conceding only one goal in three games is an impressive feat, only Sheffield United, Udinese and Schalke 04 have also failed to score more than one goal so far in Europe's top five leagues, so creativity is clearly a major issue at present.
While Oliver Glasner will be mildly concerned by the lack of goals and wins, the major disappointment of this campaign so far was undoubtedly the 2-1 defeat at AEK Athens in the Europa League playoff at the beginning of the month. Having worked hard to earn a European spot by finishing seventh last season, Die Wolfe fans will now be without any European football to sink their teeth into this season.
Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga form: LDW
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): WLDW
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: DDD
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): WDWDLD
Team News
© Reuters
Rose will be without Andreas Poulsen until December due to a shoulder injury, while Valentino Lazaro and Denis Zakaria are unlikely to be fit for the match against Wolfsburg.
It remains to be seen whether Rose opts to rest players ahead of the opening Champions League match at Inter Milan, but with a four-day gap between the two matches and his side needing to build on the win at Koln after a stuttering start, it seems unlikely he will do so. Breel Embolo is likely to continue his recovery from the bench, then.
Wolfsburg, meanwhile, are also without several players, with Maximilian Philipp, Marin Pongracic, Kevin Mbabu and William out for the foreseeable future through injury issues.
Having received criticism for resting Weghorst, Xaver Schlager and Renato Steffen in the draw at Freiburg, the one upside of the aforementioned defeat in Athens is that Glasner no longer has to juggle between domestic and continental football, leaving him freer to select his strongest XI in every league game going forward.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus; Hofmann, Stindl, Thuram; Plea
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Roussillon, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold, Steffen; Mehmedi, Weghorst, Brekalo
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 Wolfsburg
This fixture ended 3-0 to Gladbach after the resumption of football following the coronavirus crisis last season, but we expect it to be a little closer than that this time around.
Gladbach are generally a formidable side at home, though, winning 12 of their last 16 league games at Borussia-Park, so it would be a surprise if they fail to win two home matches in a row having disappointingly drawn 1-1 with Union Berlin last month. We think they have got a little more firepower to get over the line here against a Wolfsburg side struggling to create many clear cut chances.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
