Red Bull on Wednesday launched a fresh matte livery but Christian Horner warned that even the junior team Toro Rosso might be ahead early in 2016.
However, the team boss is bullish about Red Bull's hopes for later this season, as even though more distance has been added to the relationship with Renault, the French carmaker is ramping up its efforts in Formula 1.
"The first half [of the season] is going to be less competitive than the second," said Horner at the Puma sponsor event in London.
He added: "It doesn't surprise me most people have written Red Bull off but with the calibre of people we have, it would be foolhardy.
"I think we are going to start the year with some progress from the end of last season, but I think with our engine partner's commitment to buying a [works] team we will see staged progress during the course of the year.
"There's a confidence from them we haven't seen for some time. They appear to have made the right moves within their technical structure. They've brought in expertise through contractors and they appear to be moving in the right direction. The biggest problem for them is time."
For 2016, after the spats of last year, Red Bull and Renault have moved apart for the new season but Horner insists that the team can win as a mere 'customer'.
