Mere days after announcing the sacking of Florian Kohfeldt, Werder Bremen prepare for a final-day Bundesliga clash of monumental proportions against Borussia Monchengladbach at the Weser Stadium.
The hosts currently occupy the relegation playoff place with one game remaining, while Monchengladbach's top-seven destiny remains out of their own hands.
Match preview
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Kohfeldt being relieved of his duties at Werder Bremen was overwhelmingly expected, but sacking the 38-year-old just days before the biggest game of their season came as a shock to many, even with the high-status name that will be in control of the reins this weekend.
A 2-0 defeat to Augsburg - with Rani Khedira and Daniel Caligiuri netting as both sides finished with 10 men - represented Bremen's eighth defeat in nine Bundesliga matches and spelled the end of Kohfeldt's time in the dugout, with one-club man Thomas Schaaf now returning to the team where he is so fondly remembered.
With 361 appearances as a player and six major honours as a manager between 1999 and 2013 - including the 2003-04 Bundesliga title - Schaaf's task is a little different this time around, as the 60-year-old bids to pull Bremen out of their rut and above the bottom three, with Arminia Bielefeld currently one point clear in the safety of 15th spot.
Kohfeldt departs Die Werderaner having taken just one point from the last 15 on offer at home, but even if Schaaf does manage to inspire his side to victory over Monchengladbach, they will be consigned to another relegation playoff if Arminia get the better of Stuttgart.
A less-than-positive result could also consign Bremen to automatic relegation if 17th-placed Koln produce the goods against Schalke, but Schaaf has navigated 13 home games unbeaten against Monchengladbach, who are also gearing up for a summer of change in the dugout.
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A mini-revival over the Easter period has since petered out for Monchengladbach, whose coach Marco Rose prepares for his final game in the dugout before taking the reins at Borussia Dortmund for the 2021-22 season.
Incoming manager Adi Hutter may or may not be navigating his side through the Europa Conference League depending on what happens on the final day, but a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Stuttgart last weekend has threatened to leave Rose's farewell in tatters.
Lars Stindl drew first blood for Monchengladbach on the stroke of half time, but Stuttgart turned the tie on its head during the second period as Wataru Endo and star striker Sasa Kalajdzic struck within six minutes of each other to condemn Monchengladbach to back-to-back defeats.
The eighth-placed visitors remain one point behind Union Berlin in the final European spot, but their continental rivals face a taxing final-day fixture with runners-up RB Leipzig, and Monchengladbach travel to relegation-threatened Bremen boasting just four wins away from home all season.
Nico Elvedi's winner saw Monchengladbach to a 1-0 success over Werder Bremen back in January, and Rose's side will be aiming to extend their unbeaten streak against Die Werderaner to 11 games in a fixture that could have major permutations at both ends of the Bundesliga table.
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Team News
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Werder Bremen midfielder Christian Gross was given his marching orders for two bookable offences against Augsburg and will miss the final day of the season, allowing Kevin Mohwald to man the engine room.
Eren Dinkci also remains out through suspension but was never expected to push for a starting berth, while Milos Veljkovic has been training individually and remains doubtful for the weekend.
Omer Toprak has eased concerns over his fitness following an early substitution against Augsburg and should be fine here, but Niclas Fullkrug is more of a concern after missing training earlier this week.
Meanwhile, the visitors are very fortunate on the injury front and only have Mamadou Doucoure (Achilles) and Torben Musel (knee) out of contention - neither of whom were expected to start anyway.
The manner of Monchengladbach's collapse against Stuttgart could tempt Rose into making a change or two, though, with Denis Zakaria and Valentino Lazaro both pushing for starts on the final day.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Toprak, Moisander, Augustinsson; Eggestein, Mohwald, Mbom; Bittencourt; Rashica, Sargent
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Zakaria, Neuhaus; Lazaro, Stindl, Thuram; Plea
We say: Werder Bremen 2-1 Borussia Monchengladbach
If anyone knows how to motivate this crop of Werder Bremen players, it will be Schaaf, a man who knows the club like the back of his hand as they seek to avoid consecutive relegation playoff finishes.
Monchengladbach also have plenty to play for as they attempt to usurp Union Berlin, but their defence is renowned for its leaky nature and they struggle to come out on top away from home, so we can see Bremen keeping any slim hopes of survival alive with all three points on the final day.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 33.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.05%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
