Despite sitting just one point above the relegation zone, the visitors will move into ninth position if they can record a surprise win at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques.

Match preview

A general shot of Marcus Edwards celebrating with teammates for Vitoria de Guimaraes in June 2020 © Reuters

Having played just one match since the turn of the year, Vitoria de Guimaraes have been desperate to return to action as they bid to make their mark in the top half of the standings.

With all the teams below sixth spot taking points off each other, Guimaraes still sit ahead of the chasing pack even while possessing two matches in hand.

Only time will tell if Joao Henriques's side will benefit from the break, but it has left them having to play eight league matches over the next month.

On the back of a 2-2 draw at Moreirense, there is a feeling that Os Vimaranenses need to get back to winning ways on Thursday now that they sit five points adrift of fifth-placed Pacos de Ferreira.

Former Tottenham Hotspur youngster Marcus Edwards ended an eight-match wait for a goal by finding the back of the net on January 9.

While Guimaraes have been watching on from the sidelines, Nacional have suffered defeats to Porto in the Taca de Portugal and Moreirense in the league.

Nacional were two minutes away from knocking Porto out of the cup, eventually losing out 4-2 as their opponents outlasted them in extra time.

Further frustration followed versus Moreirense, who netted the only goal of the contest in the 78th minute to leave Luis Freire's side just a point above the relegation zone.

Having now lost five of their last six matches in Primeira Liga and with Benfica to come at the start of next week, Freire is aware that improvements are needed at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques.

Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form: LWWWLD
Vitoria de Guimaraes form (all competitions): WLDWLD

Nacional Primeira Liga form: LLLWLL
Nacional form (all competitions): LWWLLL

Team News

Having had 12 days to prepare for this contest, Henriques is unlikely to make any significant alterations to his Guimaraes XI.

Ruben Lameiras is an alternative to Ricardo Quaresma after his recent switch from Famalicao.

Joao Camacho could return to the Nacional starting lineup, potentially as a replacement for Kenji Gorre.

Rui Correia may feature on the substitutes' bench after serving his suspension for the red card picked up against Porto.

Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Sacko, Fernandes, Mumin, Mensah; Andre, Pepelu, Almeida; Quaresma, Holm, Edwards

Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; Freitas, Pedrao, Kal, Vigario; Borges, Micael, Azouni; Riascos, Rochez, Camacho

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We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Nacional

Games such as this could make or break whether Guimaraes sustain a bid for a Europa League place. While we expect a scrappy encounter on Thursday night, the home side's desire to remain in contention should help them to maximum points.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.68%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 27.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.