Mired in the relegation zone after last week's loss in the Veneto Derby, Venezia welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Sunday, sorely in need of three points to aid their fight against the drop.
While the hosts are occupied with avoiding an immediate return to Serie B, their visitors have moved into the top half of the Serie A standings following an upturn in form.
Match preview
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Having lost their first encounter with local rivals Verona in December despite leading 3-0 at one stage, last week Venezia were again unable to hold back the Gialloblu tide, and fell to a 14th defeat of their comeback campaign.
Leaving them 18th, and trailing Cagliari - who occupy the first safe spot in the table - by three points, Paolo Zanetti's side are now relying on their game in hand to help haul them out of trouble.
Once again, Verona's Giovanni Simeone was the architect of their downfall last Sunday, as the Argentinian striker netted a hat-trick in Venezia's 3-1 defeat, to go with a crucial brace in the reverse fixture.
That was just the latest in a series of setbacks for the Arancioneroverdi, who only recently ended a 10-game run without victory - in which they lost seven times - and have won one of their last 13 league outings.
Not only that, but they are also without a win in their last eight Serie A matches at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo before Sassuolo visit this weekend, and such a streak must surely end if the Lagunari are to stay afloat.
Beaten 3-1 in October's away clash with the Neroverdi, they will certainly kick off as outsiders against in-form opponents, who are on a clear upward trend in 2022.
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Since slipping out of the Coppa Italia early last month, to a late own goal against Juventus, the response of Sassuolo has been commendable - with only a stoppage-time Roma equaliser denying them three wins on the spin.
After their 2-2 draw with the capital club, a memorable 2-0 victory over reigning champions Inter at San Siro was then followed by last week's home success against top six hopefuls Fiorentina.
This time, the Neroverdi were beneficiaries of a crucial strike in added-on time, as French forward Gregoire Defrel snatched maximum points at the Mapei Stadium - securing just a fourth home win of the season.
Back on the road - where they have actually picked up more points this term than at their Emilian headquarters - Sassuolo could now win three successive Serie A matches for the first time this season.
Given their opponents' recent struggles they will expect to do so; consolidating 10th place in the table. As Venezia have failed to keep a clean sheet in the league since November, the visitors' potent attack will also fancy adding to some already impressive personal hauls too.
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Team News
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Aside from long-term absentee Luca Lezzerini and Nigerian full-back Tyronne Ebuehi - who could be out of action until the end of the month - Venezia should have a full complement to choose from this weekend.
Having taken just a point from their last two games though, Paolo Zanetti may revert to a back four against an attack-focused away side, which could see Ethan Ampadu utilised at right-back in Ebuehi's absence.
Up front, leading scorer David Okereke will look to build on his goal last time out, alongside Mattia Aramu and Thomas Henry - though both Nani and Dennis Johnsen are pushing for a start.
Meanwhile, Sassuolo coach Alessio Dionisi is hoping to have Vlad Chiriches, Rogerio, Jeremy Toljan and last week's matchwinner Gregoire Defrel available, despite the quartet missing full training earlier in the week, but Filip Djuricic is again expected to miss out.
Midfield mainstay Maxime Lopez must serve a suspension, which opens the door for Henrique to slot into the visitors' central pair in their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation.
From his position on the right of the trio that supports Gianluca Scamacca up front, captain Domenico Berardi has already set a new personal record for assists in a single Serie A season (11 so far). Only Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller (16) has set up more goals in the top five European leagues this term.
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Romero; Ampadu, Svoboda, Ceccaroni, Haps; Crnigoj, Busio, Cuisance; Aramu, Henry, Okereke
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Muldur, Chiriches, Ferrari, Kyriakopoulos; Henrique, Frattesi; Berardi, Raspadori, Traore; Scamacca
We say: Venezia 1-2 Sassuolo
Only Salernitana and Cagliari have registered fewer clean sheets than Venezia and Sassuolo (both three) in Serie A this season, so a goalless draw is certainly not on the cards at the Penzo.
Despite shifting shape and personnel, the home side have failed to find a method which keeps the back door shut and are far less prolific at the other end. In addition to their modest home record to date, that all adds up to a loss for the Lagunari.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Venezia had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.85%) and 0-2 (6.39%). The likeliest Venezia win was 2-1 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.
