Velez Sarsfield come into their final group match at the Copa Libertadores needing at least a point at home on Tuesday to have a shot at advancing into the knockout stage of the competition as they host Estudiantes at Estadio Jose Amalfitani.
El Fortin gave themselves a chance to advance into the next round thanks to a dramatic late winner to defeat Nacional 3-2 on matchday five, while their Argentine compatriots clinched first place in Group C with a 1-0 win over Bragantino.
Match preview
After just a single point in their first three tournament matches, Julio Vaccari has seen his players revive this campaign with four points in their previous two group games, moving into a tie with Braga for second place.
An inferior goal difference against the Brazilians will force them to be more aggressive in their final group fixture, a style that they like to play, though it has not always been successful.
The club from Liniers in Buenos Aires traditionally employ a wide-open style, leaving them susceptible in transition, having conceded in seven straight matches in all competitions.
Past experience could give them an extra boost heading into this encounter, with Velez making it into the knockout stage of this event in each of their previous eight appearances.
If they fail to make the next stage, they will only have themselves to blame, having squandered four points when holding a second-half advantage, while failing to hang on to a 1-0 lead on matchday three, losing 2-1 to Nacional.
Since dropping a 4-1 decision at Los Pincharratas on Matchday One, they have not lost a game when conceding first, winning their previous two matches in all competitions despite an early setback.
Another Copa Libertadores campaign has equalled another trip to the last 16 for the anti-football team known as Estudiantes.
The former four-time winners of this event have now made it to the knockout stage of this competition in five out of their last six appearances.
They may not always look eager to attack, but they seem to know exactly where to position themselves defensively, conceding just a single shot on target in their previous three group fixtures.
Their mid-block defending has been spot on throughout the tournament, effectively limiting the amount of space that other teams have in transition, while their high-intensity press in the middle third has often forced their opponents to go backwards.
While they rarely have a ton of possession over 90 minutes, El Leon still like to circulate the ball from one side of the field to another, and are capable of creating chances because of how quick they can counter, often catching teams off guard due to how much they hang back.
Under the guidance of Ricardo Zielinski since 2021, Estudiantes have looked well-drilled, with a sharp alignment and shape that make it difficult for their opponents to find solid shooting positions.
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
Team News
Matias de los Santos and Lucas Janson lead Velez Sarsfield with two tallies each at this competition, as they both found the back of the net versus Nacional, with the winner coming courtesy of Maximo Perrone, his first of the tournament.
Lautaro Giannetti suffered a ruptured cruciate ligament last month and will not be available until November, while Luca Orellano leads them in assists with three, setting up their opening goal on Wednesday.
We saw a couple of new faces in the starting 11 against Bolso as Orellano and Lucas Pratto replaced Julian Fernandez and Abiel Osorio.
Gustavo Del Prete scored the only goal for Estudiantes in their victory over Braga last Tuesday, his second of the tournament, while he, Emmanuel Mas, Agustin Rogel and Franco Zapiola all tallied in their 4-1 triumph versus El Fortin on matchday one.
Ezequiel Munoz has a ruptured cruciate ligament which will not be healed before this year's competition ends, while Leandro Diaz, who leads them in assists so far with three in their first five games, has yet to find the back of the net, despite scoring 10 domestically in their previous campaign.
Mariano Andujar has not conceded a goal since the 35th minute of their opening fixture in this competition, Matias Pellegrini, who is on loan from Inter Miami, has yet to score in the tournament, while they await more contributions from Fernando Zuqui, who has only set up one goal after leading them in assists domestically last season with six.
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Ortega, Gomez, De los Santos, Guidara; Perrone, Caseres, Sonora, Orellano; Janson, Pratto
Estudiantes possible starting lineup:
Pourtau; Beltran, Noguera, Rogel, Nunez; Pellegrini, Zapiola, Toledo; Marinelli, Boselli, Toledo
We say: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Estudiantes
Estudiantes are masterful at slowing a game down and waiting for the right opportunity to pounce, and the further this match stays goalless, the more risks Velez Sarsfield will have to take, leaving Los Pincharratas with more and more opportunities to strike.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
