Universitario will be searching for their first Copa Libertadores victory this year when they host coronavirus-hit Defensa y Justicia on Wednesday evening.
The Peruvians have conceded at least three goals in each of their opening three Group A matches, while the Argentinian visitors have conceded six goals in their last two games in all competitions.
Match preview
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April proved to be a difficult month for Defensa y Justicia on the pitch, winning just two of their eight matches in all competitions, and their fortunes in May have not changed as a coronavirus outbreak at the club has derailed their 2021 campaign.
In the past week, 14 players and five members of staff have been forced to self-isolate, which has seen the Hawks struggle to field a competitive starting lineup.
Manager Sebastian Beccacece opted to rest the majority of his key players for their league fixture last weekend – as he looks to prioritise progression in the Copa Libertadores – but the team he named failed to impress, as Defensa were thrashed 5-0 away at Atletico Tucuman.
That result was their seventh defeat in 13 Argentinian Primera Division matches so far this season and leaves them languishing in 11th place.
Defensa have performed slightly better in this year's Copa Libertadores, claiming four points from three Group A matches to sit five points behind leaders Palmeiras, who beat them 2-1 last week.
They face a Universitario side who have lost all three of their group matches so far, conceding 10 goals in the process.
Los Merengues were beaten 4-0 away at Independiente del Valle last week, which leaves them bottom of Group A, four points behind Wednesday's opponents Defensa, who currently occupy the second qualification spot.
Angel Comizzo's side have since won 3-2 at home to Peruvian Primera Division leaders Cienciano, with Alberto Quintero Medina scoring a dramatic late winner in the 99th minute, five minutes after Abdiel Ayarza thought he had rescued a point for the visitors.
That result moved Universitario up to fourth in the table, four points behind Cienciano, who remain at the summit.
Los Merengues have rarely progressed into the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores, reaching the final only once in their history, losing to Independiente back in 1972.
Their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages this year are slim, but claiming all three points on Wednesday would give them a fighting chance to make the top two.
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Team News
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Universitario goalkeeper Aamet Calderon is set to miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon, while striker Alexander Succar had surgery on an identical issue last month and is set for several weeks on the sidelines.
Defender Ivan Santillan, who has missed the last seven matches in all competitions, is also ruled out because of a knee injury.
Comizzo is not expected to make too many changes to his first XI, but attacking midfielder Hernan Novick could return to the side at the expense of Gerson Barreto.
As for Defensa, they will be without 14 first-team players, including Braian Romero, Nicolas Gonzalez, Franco Paredes, Fernando Meza, Carlos Rotondi, Enzo Fernandez, Lautaro Escalante, Tomas Martinez, Eugenio Isnaldo and Lautaro Amade, as they are all self-isolating.
Beccacece has a depleted squad to choose from, but the likes of Ezequiel Unsain, Nicolas Tripichio and Walter Bou – who were rested over the weekend – are all expected to return to the side.
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Chavez, Alonso, Quina, Corzo; Alfageme, Torres; Quintero, Novick, Urruti; Sandoval
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Breitenbruch, J. Rodriguez, Britez; M. Rodriguez, Tripichio, Loaiza, Gallardo; Pizzini, Hachen; Bou
We say: Universitario 1-2 Defensa y Justicia
Securing all three points for both Universitario and Defensa y Justicia would greatly improve both teams' chances of qualifying for the knockout stages, although a defeat for the hosts would all but eliminate them from the competition.
Even though the visitors will have a depleted squad, the 11 chosen on the night should be strong enough to secure a narrow victory at the Estadio Monumental.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
