Two teams who have experienced identical starts to the 2020-21 Bundesliga season will meet at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei on Saturday as Union Berlin face off against Freiburg.

Both sides have recorded one win, two draws and one loss thus far, with Union taking a point off of Schalke in a 1-1 draw and Freiburg and Werder Bremen sharing the spoils with the same scoreline last time out.

Match preview

Union Berlin players celebrate beating Mainz in the Bundesliga in October 2020 © Reuters

Having enjoyed an impressive 4-0 victory over Mainz 05 in gameweek three, a clash with another struggling outfit in the form of Schalke is just what the doctor ordered for a Union Berlin side looking to record back-to-back wins in the Bundesliga.

Schalke went into the game having scored one and conceded 15 goals already this season, but Union were unable to make their first-half dominance pay as Marvin Friedrich's opener was cancelled out by Goncalo Paciencia, and both sides ending up walking away with a point apiece.

While that result means that Union have now stretched their unbeaten run in the German top flight to three matches, manager Urs Fischer will no doubt be slightly disappointed to see his side only come away with one point rather than three against a Schalke side enduring one of the worst spells in their history.

However, Union are now gearing up for a return to home soil where they have enjoyed three victories from their last four in the league, and Fischer's men go into the game as the only side in the bottom half with a positive goal difference after four matches.

Freiburg manager Christian Streich pictured in June 2020 © Reuters

Similarly, Freiburg recorded a 1-1 stalemate of their own in gameweek four as their winless streak continued at the hands of Werder Bremen.

Christian Streich's side needed just 15 minutes to break the deadlock as Philipp Lienhart was on hand to poke home following a corner, but the defender soon went from hero to zero as he gave the ball away to Leonardo Bittencourt, who was hauled down inside the area by Nicolas Hofler.

Niclas Fullkrug continued his goalscoring streak by dispatching the resulting penalty as both sides walked away with a point, meaning that Freiburg have not tasted victory in the Bundesliga since their opening-day victory over Stuttgart.

However, Freiburg are now coming up against a Union team whom they comfortably swept aside 3-1 in the most recent meeting between the two sides, although Fischer's men took the spoils at home and in the second round of the DFB-Pokal last season.

Both sides have taken five points from a possible 12 thus far, although 10th-placed Union are two places higher than Freiburg owing to their superior goal difference, with Borussia Monchengladbach sandwiched in between the two clubs in 11th.

Union Berlin Bundesliga form: LDWD
Union Berlin form (all competitions): WLDWD

Freiburg Bundesliga form: WDLD
Freiburg form (all competitions): WWDLD

Team News

Loris Karius pictured for Besiktas in December 2019 © Reuters

Union will continue to make do without the injured duo Anthony Ujah and Nico Schlotterbeck, both of whom are expected to remain out for another couple of weeks with knee and hamstring injuries respectively.

Fischer has no selection concerns otherwise, although the Union manager has admitted that Liverpool loanee Loris Karius is less than pleased after being benched by Andreas Luthe since his arrival.

With regards to Freiburg, Amir Abrashi has returned to team training following a period of self-isolation, but Streich is still without the services of Janik Haberer and Mark Flekken through injury.

Abrashi's return is unlikely to give Streich many selection headaches, though, with the entirety of the team who started against Bremen set to keep their places here.

Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Trimmel, Friedrich, Knoche, Lenz; Promel, Andrich; Ingvartsen, Kruse, Bulter; Pohjanpalo

Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Schmid, Lienhart, Heintz, Gunter; Sallai, Santamaria, Hofler, Grifo; Petersen, Holer

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We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Freiburg

Union boast a good record on familiar territory and will be determined to make amends after failing to beat a lowly Schalke side in gameweek four. However, Freiburg ought to feel confident of doing enough to get over the line as well, but we think this one will end all square and the two clubs will both record a second 1-1 stalemate in as many matches.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.