Two teams enjoying productive campaigns will lock horns in the Bundesliga on Friday evening, as Union Berlin welcome FC Koln to Stadion An der Alten Forsterei.
Union Berlin are currently ninth in the Bundesliga table, two points behind seventh-placed Koln, with both teams bidding to secure top-half finishes this term.
Match preview
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Union Berlin suffered a 4-0 defeat to Bayern Munich before the international break, and they have only actually won one of their last seven Bundesliga matches, suffering five defeats in the process.
Die Eisernen are still in the top half of the division, though, collecting 38 points from their 27 matches, which has left them in ninth spot, just two points behind their opponents on Friday night.
Union Berlin have been strong in front of their own supporters this season, picking up 25 points from their 13 matches, but they will be taking on a Koln outfit that have lost just four of their 13 away games this term, and the visitors are also above them in the table.
Urs Fischer's side, who finished seventh in Germany's top flight last term, have a busy April, playing five times in the league, including a clash with Hertha Berlin on April 9.
Union Berlin recorded a 2-1 victory when they welcomed Koln for the corresponding match last season, although the two teams played out a 2-2 draw in Cologne earlier this term.
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Koln, meanwhile, have only lost one of their last five in the Bundesliga, beating Bayer Leverkusen and drawing with Borussia Dortmund in their last two games at this level of football.
The two-time German champions finished 16th in the Bundesliga last season, leading to them needing to win a relegation playoff to retain their status in the top flight.
Koln have no relegation fears at this stage of the 2021-22 campaign, though, as an impressive season has seen them pick up 40 points from their 27 matches to sit seventh in the table.
Steffen Baumgart's side are actually only five points behind fourth-placed RB Leipzig, and their last two results against Leverkusen and Dortmund should mean that confidence is high in the camp.
Koln, as mentioned, have picked up points in nine of their 13 away league matches this season, but they have lost four of their last five Bundesliga games against Union Berlin.
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Team News
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Union Berlin will have Grischa Promel back from a suspension, while Dominique Heintz has returned to first-team training following a muscular problem.
Keita Endo could also return to the squad after a recent injury, while Andreas Luthe, Genki Haraguchi, Levin Oztunali, Kevin Behrens and Christopher Trimmel will hope to be available after recent positive COVID-19 tests.
Taiwo Awoniyi is enjoying a strong season in the Bundesliga, scoring 11 times, and the 24-year-old will again operate in the final third of the field for the hosts.
As for Koln, Ondrej Duda is out through suspension, while Benno Schmitz is a doubt with a thigh issue.
The visitors are also waiting on a number of players, with Mark Uth, Jonas Hector, Florian Kainz, Dejan Ljubicic, Marvin Obuz and Tim Lemperle all doubts.
Louis Schaub, meanwhile, tested positive for coronavirus while on international duty with Austria and is therefore a major doubt for Friday's contest.
Like Union Berlin, Koln have a striker enjoying a strong campaign, with Anthony Modeste netting 15 times in the top tier of German football during the 2021-22 season.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Oczipka, Khedira, Trimmel; Promel, Becker, Haraguchi; Awoniyi
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Ehizibue, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Thielmann, Ljubicic, Ozcan; Uth; Modeste, Andersson
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 FC Koln
The two teams played out a draw in the reverse match earlier this season, and we can see another stalemate here. It is always difficult to predict games straight after an international break, and we have had to sit on the fence somewhat, backing a low-scoring draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.
