Seeking to bounce back from more midweek disappointment, Lazio travel to meet Serie A strugglers Udinese at the Dacia Arena on Sunday.
Though they have won three of their last four league matches, the Aquile lost in the Europa League on Thursday having previously been eliminated in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals. Meanwhile, their hosts have won just once in five games and are placed perilously close to the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Much like in Serie A, Lazio have proved less effective away from home in continental competition, and only victory in their penultimate Europa League group game had finally ended an 11-game winless run on the road in Europe. However, they once again returned to Rome empty-handed following a midweek trip to Porto.
Despite suffering a 2-1 defeat at Estadio do Dragao, their playoff tie with the Portuguese club remains in the balance, but they will certainly harbour some regrets after squandering a lead provided by Mattia Zaccagni's near-post flick from a corner.
Nevertheless, there have been signs in Serie A - where the Biancocelesti currently sit sixth; two points above city rivals Roma inside the European places - that they are becoming a more resilient proposition.
Having previously leaked goals at an alarming rate as they adapted to Maurizio Sarri's methods, after a routine 3-0 win over Bologna last week, Lazio have now kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league games.
Only three times in the club's top-flight history have they recorded at least five straight shutouts before, but they will now attempt to do so against a side they have tended to dominate. Indeed, the Aquile have won 10 of their last 14 league games versus Udinese - losing just once - while keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.
Though an illness which ruled him out of European action casts doubt on his participation this weekend, 19-goal Capocannoniere leader Ciro Immobile has helped Lazio become both the team with the best shot conversion rate (18.8%) and highest percentage of shots on target (55.8%) in Serie A this season. In both categories, across the top five European leagues, only Bayer Leverkusen have fared better.
If fit to feature in Udine, with a single goal Immobile would reach Silvio Piola's long-standing record as Lazio's top scorer in the Italian top flight, and also become just the third player in Serie A history to score at least 20 times in six separate seasons.
With Zaccagni also in fine form, no side has scored more times than Lazio so far this year, so their hosts will be expecting to batten down the hatches when they storm into town on Sunday.
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Udinese have picked up just two points from their last eight home games against Lazio - scoring four and conceding 12 - and by contrast with their visitors' recent defensive improvement, only Empoli and Sassuolo have conceded more Serie A goals than the Bianconeri since the turn of the year.
Following a 4-0 reverse at Hellas Verona last Sunday, they also went three consecutive away games without scoring for the first time since 2019, and the brief upturn in results experienced when Gabriele Cioffi was appointed as successor to former coach Luca Gotti has started to dissipate.
Two down to Verona within half an hour, Cioffi's men were unable to recover, and defeat saw them slide down to 15th place in the table with just over a third of the campaign still to play.
Far from assured of Serie A safety, they sit three points clear of the drop zone, but have at least one game in hand on most of their relegation rivals due to a disrupted start to 2022.
Still with that advantage to fall back on, Udinese can usually rely on better fortunes on home soil. The Friulani have been beaten only once in their last seven home games - losing just three times at the Dacia Arena all season - so will hold out hope of gaining swift revenge for their Coppa Italia loss to Lazio last month.
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Team News
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Lazio will give star striker Ciro Immobile as long as possible to rejoin the squad ahead of Sunday's game, after he was left behind in Rome with a fever in midweek.
As a result, Felipe Anderson and Pedro rotated duties as 'false nine' in the Aquile's attacking trident at the Dragao, and would do so again if Immobile - who has been directly involved in 13 goals in as many Serie A matches against Udinese - cannot undertake the long trip north.
With Lucas Leiva and Luis Alberto both serving suspensions, Danilo Cataldi and Toma Basic stand ready to start in the visitors' midfield, while Maurizio Sarri is also set to be without defenders Francesco Acerbi and Manuel Lazzari due to injury.
Udinese, meanwhile, are expected to bring Nehuen Perez into the back three for Marvin Zeegelaar following the concession of four goals in Verona, and Isaac Success is set to make way for top scorer Beto up front.
Having netted his only Serie A brace to date in December's dramatic 4-4 draw at Lazio, the Portuguese forward was dropped last week and has not scored in his last four league games.
Bram Nuytinck and Destiny Udogie are both major doubts for Gabriele Cioffi, but midfielder Roberto Pereyra - who has not featured since November because of a shoulder injury - could now return to the squad. Tolgay Arslan is also back from suspension and should start.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Mari, Perez; Molina, Arslan, Walace, Makengo, Soppy; Deulofeu, Beto
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Hysaj, Patric, Felipe, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Basic; Pedro, Anderson, Zaccagni
We say: Udinese 1-2 Lazio
While Lazio are on a positive run of form in the league and are pushing for a European place, they do not always travel well, so Udinese can run them close on Sunday.
Whatever the makeup of the visitors front three, though, they possess enough attacking threat to pick up maximum points - claiming their third win over the Bianconeri in the space of three months.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Udinese had a probability of 36.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Udinese win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
