Fresh from claiming their first win of the new Ligue 1 season, Saint-Etienne travel to newly-promoted Troyes on Sunday afternoon.
While the visitors prevailed 3-2 in an end-to-end showdown with Clermont, Troyes went down 4-0 to Lens in dismal fashion.
Match preview
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The Jonathan Clauss show was a truly marvellous spectacle for Lens in the first half of their encounter with Troyes, as the right-back had two assists and one goal to his name before the half-time whistle blew to put his side three goals to the good.
Przemyslaw Frankowski rounded off the scoring for Sang et Or with an hour played as Troyes slumped to a miserable defeat at the home of the second-placed outfit, ending their three-game unbeaten run in the process.
Laurent Batlles's men had taken seven points from their previous three clashes before being taught a footballing lesson by Lens, and that short-lived hot streak has helped the newly-promoted side rise to 14th in the table, but they remain just one point clear of Bordeaux in 18th.
Troyes have certainly proven a tough nut to crack on home soil this term, as they welcome Saint-Etienne to the Stade de l'Aube on a four-game unbeaten run at home - drawing three of them - but their visitors ought to be on cloud nine following the manner of their win over Clermont.
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Mere days after reportedly needing a police escort home due to fan fury, Claude Puel oversaw Saint-Etienne's first victory of the 2021-22 season against Clermont, but Les Verts appeared to be heading for another lowly defeat before an injury-time turnaround.
After Mohamed Bayo and Jason Berthomier had put the newly-promoted outfit two goals to the good, Arnaud Nordin's 78th-minutes strike sparked a remarkable comeback for Puel's side, as Jean-Philippe Krasso and Saidou Sow both met corners from Nordin in injury time to prevail in an empty Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Saint-Etienne had also taken points from clashes with Metz and Angers before beating Clermont, and such a run of form may be considered a mini revival of sorts after Les Verts claimed their first win of the season at the 13th attempt.
In doing so, Puel's men leapfrogged Metz in the table and are no longer the league's basement boys, but the 19th-placed Verts are still three points adrift of safety and have a far inferior goal difference to that of their bottom-half rivals.
Les Verts' record of two points from six games on the road so far is the worst in the division, though - with 16 goals conceded on the road the second highest in the league behind Clermont - and the last meeting on Troyes' turf ended in a 2-1 win for the hosts in 2017.
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Team News
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Troyes continue to cope with a lengthy list of absentees, as Karim Azamoum continues to recover from an ACL problem, but Tristan Dingome (thigh), Yoann Touzghar (back) and Florian Tardieu (foot) could make their returns.
Yasser Larouci, Metinho, Philippe Sandler are also among those set to remain sidelined for this battle, while Mama Balde picked up a knee problem on international duty.
The Guinea-Bissau international could therefore be replaced by Gerson Rodrigues, who may shift over to the left if Touzghar is deemed fit enough to lead the line.
As for Saint-Etienne, left-back Gabriel Silva had to be replaced after 39 minutes of the win over Clermont with a hamstring problem, and Mahdi Camara will serve a suspension.
Puel's defensive concerns do not stop there, as Harold Moukoudi and Alpha Sissoko are also out, while Sow picked up an injury during the most recent international break and should be replaced by Mickael Nade.
Nordin has surely done enough to warrant a return to the first XI after inspiring his side to all three points against Clermont, with Romain Hamouma potentially dropping out.
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Salmier, Giraudon, Rami; Biancone, Chavalerin, Kouame, Kone; Ripart, Touzghar, Rodrigues
Saint-Etienne possible starting lineup:
Green; Macon, Nade, Kolodziejczak, Trauco; Youssouf, Gourna-Douath; Nordin, Boudebouz, Bouanga; Khazri
We say: Troyes 2-2 Saint-Etienne
Defensive deficiencies continue to bedevil Saint-Etienne and Puel, who will be forced into a major backline reshuffle, and the international break could not have come at a worse time for the visitors.
Troyes are difficult to break down on their own patch but are not exactly the masters of keeping clean sheets themselves, so we can envisage an entertaining encounter ending with the two clubs shaking hands on a point.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.41%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
