Toronto will look to get their first home win of this Major League Soccer campaign when they host the Columbus Crew on Wednesday.
The 2017 league champions have failed to score in their last two games in all competitions, while the reigning MLS Cup champions picked up their first victory last Saturday against DC United.
Match preview
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So far this season, The Reds look to be a shadow of their former selves, losing four of their last five matches in all competitions and earning just one point in three league fixtures.
The last time they had a worse start to a regular season was in 2018, when they lost two of their first three games, eventually missing the playoffs.
New manager Chris Armas will not be pleased with The Reds' defensive shape, as they have conceded eight goals in their first three regular-season games.
After a pair of dismal outings in the CONCACAF Champions League, where they were eliminated by Cruz Azul, taking on the defending MLS champions could be just what the doctor ordered for TFC.
The Reds have not lost a regular-season game to the Crew since 2018, winning their lone matchup in 2020 by a score of 3-1.
Toronto FC have been bad so far in 2021, but until last weekend the defending MLS Cup champions had not been much better.
Columbus have started the season with five points from their first three games, failing to score in three of their last five matches in all competitions.
Caleb Porter and his side still have a lot of work to do to get this team back up to the level of defending champions, but their performance last weekend was an encouraging sign.
There is still plenty of time to make up ground, and they will want to keep climbing up the highly competitive Eastern Conference standings.
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Team News
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Winger Erickson Gallardo had groin surgery last month and will be out for the foreseeable future.
Julian Dunn has a hip injury, and Chris Mavinga played a full 90 minutes last weekend after previously suffering a calf injury.
The Reds will hope left-back Kemar Lawrence can bring some stability to their shaky backline that has conceded the third-most goals in all of Major League Soccer.
Lawrence, a former MLS all-star, signed last week with Toronto through 2024 from Belgian club Anderlecht.
Caleb Porter has had to deal with a string of injuries to his midfield so far this season, with Liam Fraser nursing an ankle injury, and Aidan Morris out with a knee problem.
For the Columbus Crew, Marlon Hairston has a bruised knee, and Kevin Molino has a muscle injury.
Midfielder Lucas Zelarayan will be keen to get his game back on track after a stellar 2020 post-season where he had two goals and five assists and was named the MLS Cup MVP.
Last weekend was a good sign for the Argentinian, who scored his first goal of the season in a 3-1 victory over DC United.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Auro, Mavinga, Gonzalez, Lawrence; Bradley, Priso; Nelson, DeLeon, Delgado; Akinola
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Afful, Jonathan, Williams, Francis; Artur, Nagbe; Espinoza, Zelarayan, Santos; Wright-Phillips
We say: Toronto 0-2 Columbus Crew
So far in 2021, even with a new man at the helm, TFC look stagnant and predictable in midfield and not at all like the dominant side that finished in the top four of the Eastern Conference standings in three of the past four seasons.
The Crew have not looked great after three matches, but they have been able to earn points despite that, while The Reds have shot themselves in the foot multiple times.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
