After a 2-0 defeat in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie with Chelsea on Wednesday, Porto will look to bounce back with a fifth consecutive league win on Saturday, when they travel to take on Tondela.
With nine games left to play, Os Dragoes sit second in the Primeira Liga table, eight points behind league leaders Sporting Lisbon, while the hosts have moved up to ninth and away from the threat of relegation thanks to an upturn in form.
Match preview
© Reuters
Tondela got back to winning ways last time out, when they travelled to take on Vitoria de Guimaraes.
CDT Auriverdes took the lead through Mario Gonzalez, but Oscar Estupinan equalised for the hosts before Gonzalez netted his second goal of the game to seal all three points for Pako Ayestaran's side.
That was Tondela's eighth league victory of the season, just one fewer than they managed in the entirety of the last campaign.
As a result, Ayestaran's men have now steered well clear of the relegation places, with the gap between themselves and the automatic drop zone stretched to seven points with nine matches left to play.
CDT Auriverdes will now focus on securing the best possible league position, with the opportunity to reduce the gap between themselves and the likes of Moreirense and Santa Clara, with the eighth and seventh-placed sides sitting three and four points ahead of them respectively.
However, they face a very tough test on Saturday when they take on a Porto side who will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing European defeat on Wednesday.
© Reuters
Porto suffered a defeat in the home leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie last time out, as goals from Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell gave the Blues a two-goal lead going into the second leg.
However, Sergio Conceicao's side have hit a strong run of form in domestic action, having won their last four games in the Portuguese top flight.
Most recently, the defending champions secured a 2-1 win at home to Santa Clara in dramatic fashion.
Sergio Oliveira put Os Dragoes ahead from the penalty spot, before Carlos equalised with a penalty of his own, and the game looked set to finish 1-1 until Toni Martinez netted a winner in the fifth minute of added time to snatch all three points for Conceicao's men.
As a result, they closed the gap between themselves and Sporting Lisbon to eight points after Sporting's draw with Moreirense, slightly renewing their hopes of retaining the title.
If they are to stand a chance of doing that, Conceicao will feel that his side needs to win every league game until the end of the season, while they are counting on the league leaders dropping points.
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Tondela could remain without Naoufel Khacef on the left-hand side, after he was absent from the squad against Vitoria de Guimaraes.
However, their options will be boosted by the return of midfielder Salvador Agra, after he served a suspension last time out.
Meanwhile, they also recently welcomed experienced right-back Bebeto back to action, boosting their defensive quality.
Porto's only absentee should be centre-back Ivan Marcano, who remains out with a muscle injury.
Despite missing the Champions League tie against Chelsea, both forward Mehdi Taremi and midfielder Sergio Oliveira will be able to play in this game, with the pair registering a combined 21 goals and 16 assists in the Portuguese top flight this season.
Chancel Mbemba was given a rest in the last league game, but he could come back into the side to partner Pepe on Saturday.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Tavares, Alves, Ferreira; Pedro, Grau, Olabe; Murillo, Gonzalez, Barbosa
Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Mbemba, Pepe, Sanusi; Otavio, Uribe, Oliveira, Diaz; Marega, Taremi
We say: Tondela 1-2 Porto
The hosts will certainly be no pushovers on Saturday, having put together a decent run of form, but we see Porto coming out with a narrow win with a full squad available to pick from.
With the battle for second spot hearing up, Conceicao's side need to ensure they keep winning, and they should have enough to pick up three crucial points on the road.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.27%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 14.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.29%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
