Swansea City return to action with the long trip to Middlesbrough, sitting just three points adrift of the Championship playoffs with nine games remaining.

Despite winning their final fixture before football was suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic, Middlesbrough welcome the Welsh outfit to the Riverside Stadium with the club just two points above the relegation zone.

Match preview

Swansea boss Steve Cooper on February 1, 2020 © Reuters

Steve Cooper has endured a solid campaign in his first year in the Swansea dugout, keeping the club no lower than mid-table since the beginning of August.

However, with just one win coming from six games, a run which has also included four draws, there will be a feeling that an opportunity has been missed to establish the club in the playoff places.

Nevertheless, with nine games remaining, Swansea are just three points adrift of sixth-placed Preston North End and a further four behind Brentford in fourth position.

At the beginning of the season, that is a scenario which would have been accepted without a second thought, and Cooper will be confident that Swansea can make further progress with four of their next five fixtures coming against opponents in the bottom half of the table.

The form of Rhian Brewster will be key during the run-in, with the Liverpool loanee contributing four goals from 11 outings up until the middle of March.

From Middlesbrough's perspective, Jonathan Woodgate will be eager for his players to build on their results immediately before the action was brought to an abrupt halt.

While they agonisingly missed out of all three points against Nottingham Forest, Boro responded with a potentially-pivotal 1-0 success away at relegation rivals Charlton Athletic.

The North-East outfit now sit two points above the Addicks, who are now in the drop zone, and it leaves Woodgate realistically targeting four more wins for survival.

Like Swansea, Boro face a number of games against teams in the bottom half, inevitably putting his squad under increasing pressure to be firing on all cylinders on Saturday.

With his team possessing the worst attacking record in the division, Woodgate will hope that more players can chip in with goals during the run-in, rather than having to rely on a quartet of Ashley Fletcher, Lewis Wing, Britt Assombalonga and Paddy McNair, who are the only players to register more than two strikes.

Middlesbrough Championship form: DLLLDW

Swansea City Championship form: DDWLDD

Team News

Middlesbrough boss Jonathan Woodgate on March 2, 2020 © Reuters

Woodgate is expected to be without Daniel Ayala, who has reportedly refused to pen a short-term extension to his contract.

However, Ryan Shotton and Jonny Howson, in a similar position to Ayala, are expected to feature in the starting lineup.

Manchester City loanee Patrick Roberts is fit again and should line up on one of the flanks, with Rudy Gestede potentially getting the nod down the middle.

Despite being sidelined before lockdown, Mike van der Hoorn, George Byers and Andre Ayew are all in line to feature for Swansea.

Barring any late fitness issues, Cooper could have a fully-fit squad at his disposal.

Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Stojanovic; Howson, Moukoudi, Shotton, Johnson; Wing, Clayton, McNair; Roberts, Gestede, Fletcher

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Van der Hoorn, Rodon, Bidwell; Byers, Grimes; Kalulu, Gallagher, Ayew; Brewster

We say: Middlesbrough 1-1 Swansea City

Given their respective targets at each end of the table, Middlesbrough and Swansea may be content with simply avoiding defeat on their first game back. With that in mind, we expect a low-scoring draw in the North-East.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.