Stoke City welcome Luton Town to the bet365 Stadium on Saturday afternoon having finally ended their two-month winless streak in the Championship.
The ninth-placed Potters sit five points clear of the visitors, who travel to Staffordshire on the back of three defeats in five games.
Match preview
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Having witnessed his side succumb to a 4-1 defeat at Norwich City at the weekend, Michael O'Neill was aware that Stoke's season was at risk of petering out with a third of their games remaining.
However, their 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday evening could act as the catalyst required to stay in the mix for the playoffs.
Stoke still sit seven points adrift of sixth-placed Bournemouth, but O'Neill will at least feel that his Potters squad can build on ending their 11-match wait for victory in all competitions.
While Steven Fletcher's late strike against his former club was just his seventh goal of the season, three of those efforts have come in his last five appearances.
Luton Town boss Nathan Jones returns to his former club having enjoyed a relatively stress-free campaign after somehow keeping the Hatters in the second tier last summer.
Nevertheless, Jones will be keen to avoid any more defeats in the short term with just four points being collected from their most recent five fixtures.
Crucially, those points were earned against potential relegation rivals in Huddersfield Town and Birmingham City, ensuring that Luton can continue to focus on achieving some security in mid-table.
Although nine points separate Jones's team and the bottom three, it has reached a stage of the season where a defeat can result in a significant drop down the standings.
In comparison to some of the teams around them, Luton have a more favourable fixture list over the next two weeks, but that only ups the stakes as they bid to keep distance between themselves and the drop zone.
Stoke City Championship form: DLDDLW
Luton Town Championship form: WLLDWL
Luton Town form (all competitions): LLLDWL
Team News
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O'Neill is unlikely to take any risks on Stoke defender Morgan Fox, who sustained a hamstring injury in midweek.
Josh Tymon or Rhys Norrington-Davies, who is returning from suspension, are in line to deputise, but Fletcher should be fit despite a knock to his calf.
Tom Lockyer and Matty Pearson could miss out for Luton after they sustained ankle and hamstring injuries against Cardiff City.
Jordan Clark and Martin Cranie are in line to replace the defensive pair, with Harry Cornick an alternative to Danny Hylton on the right flank.
Stoke loanee Tom Ince is unable to feature against his parent club.
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Gunn; Smith, Souttar, Batth, Tymon; Allen, Thompson; Brown, Powell, McClean; Fletcher
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Clark, Cranie, Bradley, Potts; Mpanzu, Rea, Dewsbury-Hall; Hylton, Collins, Naismith
We say: Stoke City 1-1 Luton Town
Stoke must find a way to use their late win in midweek to trigger an improved return in the final third. However, facing a Luton side who may be content with a share of the spoils, we expect a low-key encounter in the Potteries to end in a draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 40.79%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 28.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.39%) and 2-1 (7.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.35%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
