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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 36
Jul 15, 2020 at 6pm UK
St. James' Park
Spurs logo

Newcastle
1 - 3
Spurs

Ritchie (56')
Fernandez (35'), Shelvey (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Heung-min (27'), Kane (60', 90')
Alderweireld (31'), Kane (74'), Davies (85')

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Premier League encounter between Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur, including team news and predicted lineups.

Tottenham Hotspur will be looking to build on their victory over Arsenal when they head to Newcastle United on Wednesday evening.

Spurs beat North London rivals Arsenal 2-1 at the weekend to keep their European hopes alive, while Newcastle were beaten 2-1 by Watford as their season continues to peter out.


Match preview

Tottenham Hotspur's Toby Alderweireld celebrates scoring against Arsenal in the Premier League on July 12, 2020© Reuters

Tottenham could not afford to lose against their bitter rivals if they were to prevent 2019-20 being anything other than a disastrous season for the club.

Out of each cup competition and battling for a top-six finish in the Premier League, Jose Mourinho's first season at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has not exactly been a success.

However, the win over Arsenal - secured through a late Toby Alderweireld goal after Son Heung-min had cancelled out Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's opener - has at least given Spurs a platform to build from.

The victory became even more important 24 hours on, in fact, as Manchester City's two-year ban from European football was overturned, meaning that seventh will no longer be enough for a Europa League qualifying spot.

Instead, Mourinho's men will have to make up a three-point deficit on Wolverhampton Wanderers in sixth with only three games to go - a run of fixtures that includes a trip to fourth-placed Leicester City.

Speaking after the Arsenal match, Alderweireld described the result as a "turning point" in Tottenham's season, coming on the back of some inconsistent results since last month's restart.

Newcastle United manager Steve Bruce watches on as Andy Carroll comes on for Joelinton on June 24, 2020© Reuters

Spurs have now won three, drawn two and lost one of their last six matches and, in terms of results since Mourinho succeeded Mauricio Pochettino in November, they are fifth in the form table.

There appears to be light at the end of the tunnel for Tottenham, then, and back-to-back wins for the first time since February will ensure that they have every chance of qualifying for the Europa League - a competition Mourinho intends to win for a third time with Spurs.

The same is not quite true for Newcastle, who have receded over the past couple of weeks since thrashing Bournemouth 4-1 on their travels.

Motivation may be an issue for the Magpies given that they are firmly in mid-table, well clear of relegation but with no hope of finishing in a European spot.

Steve Bruce's side have lost 5-0 to Man City and 2-1 to lowly Watford in their last two matches, the latter seeing them concede two second-half penalties to throw away the points.

They are unbeaten in six home league matches, however, and have lost just three times at St James' Park all campaign - not since 2011-12 have they had a better record.

With Tottenham and Liverpool to play on home soil, either side of a trip to Brighton & Hove Albion, Bruce will be hopeful that his players are motivated enough to prevent their campaign from ending on a low note.

Newcastle's Premier League form: WDWDLL
Newcastle's form (all competitions): DLWDLL

Tottenham's Premier League form: DWLWDW
Tottenham's form (all competitions): DWLWDW


Team News

Tottenham Hotspur's Serge Aurier looks dejected as he walks off after being shown a red card on September 28, 2019© Reuters

Tottenham are still sweating on the fitness of Dele Alli, who has missed their last few games, while Eric Dier remains suspended.

Right-back Serge Aurier is also expected to miss Wednesday's clash following the death of his brother in the early hours of Monday.

Aurier's absence coincides with the return of Japhet Tanganga, who was among the substitutes against Arsenal.

Mourinho pulled off a tactical masterclass against Arsenal by fielding a 4-4-1-1 of sorts, but a return to 4-3-3 is likely against Newcastle, possibly meaning a recall for Erik Lamela.

Newcastle's drop in form has not been helped by a number of first-team players being struck down by injury, with Ciaran Clark, Sean Longstaff, Isaac Hayden and Andy Carroll still out.

Florian Lejeune is pushing for a return to action before the end of the season, but this game may come too soon for him, while Danny Rose is ineligible to face his former club.

Elsewhere, Allan Saint-Maximin picked up a knock against Watford and is believed to be touch-and-go for Wednesday's match.

Newcastle possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Krafth, Lascelles, Fernandez, Yedlin; Saint-Maximin, Shelvey, Bentaleb, Joelinton; Almiron; Gayle

Tottenham possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Tanganga, Sanchez, Alderweireld, Davies; Sissoko, Winks, Lo Celso; Lamela, Kane, Son


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Newcastle United 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle have lost back-to-back matches but have been tough to beat on home soil this season. Tottenham have struggled for consistency pretty much all campaign, meanwhile, and we can see them following up their derby victory with a stalemate in the North-East.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 51.41%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 23.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.


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Tottenham Hotspur's Toby Alderweireld celebrates scoring against Arsenal in the Premier League on July 12, 2020
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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