On Saturday, Sporting Kansas City will have revenge on their mind when they host Real Salt Lake in Major League Soccer action at Children's Mercy Park.
RSL shocked KC in the 2021 postseason, scoring twice in the final 18 minutes plus stoppage time, winning 2-1 and ending the Wizards hope of a third MLS Cup.
Match preview
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One of the most consistent regular season sides in MLS have looked like a shadow of their former selves in the early stages of the 2022 campaign.
After four matches, Peter Vermes continues to look for answers, as his veteran group have struggled to keep pace with some of the more youthful MLS sides, conceding the second-most goals (eight) in the Western Conference.
We are unlikely to see any panic from this team, who have been around the league for a long time, but at the moment, we have not seen a lot of positive attacking play from them.
Last year the Wizards were often bailed out by some outstanding finishing from their wingers, who made some extraordinary contributions, but that kind of production is difficult to put up consistently.
KC have had their share of scoring chances early on, putting together 115 successful passes in the final third, but with only three goals, it may be time for them to be a little greedier in front of goal.
Vermes is not afraid to switch things up, using 17 different starters already this season, which is tied for the second-most in the league behind only the New England Revolution.
The departure of llie Sanchez in midfield has been a massive blow to this side, who have struggled to slow down opposing teams in transition throughout the year.
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Salt Lake surprised everyone in the 2021 postseason, and they are defying the odds early on this year, going unbeaten after four matches, currently in a three-way tie with the Philadelphia Union and Los Angeles FC for the best record in MLS.
Despite conceding 19 shots on target in their opening four games, they have only allowed three goals, which is a good sign given the quality of the opponents that they have faced, edging the Seattle Sounders (1-0), New England Revolution (3-2) and Nashville SC (2-1).
For the first time since August 2019, RSL have won three matches in a row, quite the achievement when considering who has been missing from their lineup.
Pablo Mastroeni has put together a patient approach and a style built on catching the opposition on the break, as his players rarely seem to have the ball for long stretches, averaging just over 44% possession in their first four games.
Possessing the ball is one thing, although it means nothing unless you can make it count, and RSL made the most of their opportunities a week ago, scoring on both of their efforts on target against Nashville.
Sometimes having an exemplary character and mentality can be a determining factor, and that seems to be the case for Claret and Cobalt early on this year, as they have struggled with combination play, while they are not very compact, which has made them easy to break down.
Some outstanding individual efforts in attack and in goal have rescued them plenty of times in the early portion of this season, though it remains to be seen if that can be a consistent recipe for success.
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Team News
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KC defender Graham Zusi leads the league in touches with 374, Andreu Fontas is second in successful passes in MLS (289), while Roger Espinoza became the third-oldest player in club history to score a goal, as the 35-year-old notched their only tally in a 3-1 defeat to the Chicago Fire last weekend.
Vermes's side have been hit hard with injuries, as Gadi Kinda and Alan Pulido are out after each undergoing knee surgery, Jose Mauri remains unavailable, Uri Rosell and Johnny Russell are questionable with hamstring issues, while it is unknown if Daniel Salloi and Khiry Shelton will be ready to go after suffering calf injuries.
Those are some significant losses when you consider that Russell, Salloi, Pulido, Shelton and Kinda have combined for 72.9% of KC's goals since 2020 (70 of 96).
Kansas City winger Marinos Tzionis will not be available for this encounter, as he will be on international duty with Cyprus.
Speaking of significant losses, RSL have had their share of key players missing too, as Zack Farnsworth has a left ankle problem, Nick Besler has a nose injury, Bret Halsey continues to nurse a right ankle issue and first-choice goalkeeper David Ochoa is out with a right quad injury.
Their leading goalscorer from a year ago, Damir Kreilach, has not played since the opening game and is questionable to return this weekend with a left calf issue, Rubio Rubin is a question mark with a left groin problem, Sergio Cordova has a right knee injury and Maikel Chang missed the previous match due to concussion protocol.
Last Saturday, RSL defender Tate Schmitt scored the game-winner for a second match running, Bode Davis made his MLS debut, coming on as a second-half substitute, and Zac MacMath made seven saves to preserve the victory, giving him a total of 16 stops so far this season, the third-most among MLS keepers.
Justin Meram has been called-up to the Iraqi national team as they look to keep their slim hopes of qualifying for the World Cup alive.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Isimat-Mirin, Fontas, Rad, Zusi; Hernandez, Walter, Espinoza, Duke; Davis, Vujnovic
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
MacMath; Holt, Glad, Herrera; Brody, Luiz, Caldwell, Schmitt; Ruiz, Menendez; Wood
We say: Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Real Salt Lake
Injuries have decimated these teams early on this year, but it has been RSL who have found a way to rise above it, while KC have crumbled.
Even though there has been an element of good fortune to their early success, Salt Lake still look a lot more dynamic going forward than the Wizards, who have been rather predictable.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 20.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 0-1 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Kansas City in this match.
