VVV-Venlo and Sparta Rotterdam square off in the Eredivisie on Tuesday evening with just two points separating the clubs in the standings.
The visitors sit six points ahead of the relegation zone, a marginal advantage over opposition who have suffered five straight league defeats.
Match preview
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In reaching the KNVB Beker semi-finals, VVV-Venlo have been able to put a positive spin on what has been a season battling to remain above the bottom three.
However, now that they have been eliminated from the cup, Hans de Koning must address the increasing issues which are emerging with his team.
VVV-Venlo have suffered six successive defeats against top-flight opposition, their only victory in seven matches coming against second-tier NEC after extra time.
As many as 23 goals have been conceded during those fixtures, six of which came in the demoralising defeat at the hands of Feyenoord on Saturday.
Remaining just four points above 16th-placed Willem II, the Yellow Black Army are under pressure to get back on track against a team in Sparta who have also lost their way.
While Henk Fraser's side claimed a point in their last outing, it came against bottom-of-the-table Emmen, who equalised through a last-minute penalty.
Come the end of the season, it may prove to be an important result, but Fraser knows that he needs to end an eight-match winless streak as soon as possible.
The biggest plus for Fraser and his squad is the established big three of Ajax, PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord not featuring in their closing 10 fixtures.
Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency, particularly when defeat on Tuesday will see them drop down to 14th place.
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Team News
De Koning will inevitably make alterations to his Venlo XI with one of Arjan Swinkels or Christian Kum likely to return to the team.
Gus Hupperts could be handed a start on the left flank, while Simon Janssen may replace Meritan Shabani in midfield.
The extra day of recovery may encourage Fraser to stick with the Sparta XI from the draw with Emmen.
Deroy Duarte may be recalled if Fraser opts to use an extra creative player in midfield.
VVV-Venlo possible starting lineup:
Kirschbaum; Pachonik, Swinkels, Graca, Schafer; Post, Donis, Janssen; John, Arias, Hupperts
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Vriends, Beugelsdijk, Meijers; Harroui, L.Duarte, Auassar, Burger; Thy, Engels
We say: VVV-Venlo 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam
While a draw against the worst side in the division was regarded as a disappointment, it was at least a step in the right direction for Sparta. With that in mind, we feel that the visitors will back themselves to claim maximum points on Tuesday night, potentially late on when the home side would settle for a point.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 44.7%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.96%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sparta Rotterdam in this match.
