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[monks data]
Spain national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 19, 2021 at 8pm UK
San Mamés Barria
Poland national football team

Spain
1 - 1
Poland

Morata (25')
Torres (81'), Rodri (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lewandowski (54')
Klich (36'), Moder (57'), Jozwiak (59'), Lewandowski (90+3')

Preview: Spain vs. Poland - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's European Championship clash between Spain and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Spain will be looking to put an important three points on the board when they play their second group match at this summer's European Championship against Poland on Saturday night.

Luis Enrique's side opened their Group E challenge with a goalless draw against Sweden on Monday, while Poland suffered a 2-1 loss to Slovakia, which has placed them in a tough spot ahead of this match.


Match preview

Sweden's Victor Lindelof in action against Spain at Euro 2020 on June 14, 2021© Reuters

Spain will feel that they had enough chances to beat Sweden in their Group E opener on Monday night, but Enrique's team found opposition goalkeeper Robin Olsen in impressive form.

Alvaro Morata missed a guilt-edged chance in the first half of the contest, meanwhile, and there were certainly encouraging signs from La Roja despite the relatively disappointing nature of the result.

Spain cannot be confirmed in the top two or eliminated after matchday two, but a win over Poland would place them in a strong position heading into their final group game against a talented Slovakia on June 23.

La Roja are bidding to win a fourth European Championship, which would make them the most successful team in the history of the competition; as it stands, they are level on three trophies with Germany, having triumphed in the 1964, 2008 and 2012 editions of the tournament.

Spain's preparations for Euro 2020 were far from ideal due to Sergio Busquets's positive coronavirus test, but the national team have now had time to settle after a turbulent build-up, and they simply cannot be written off at this level despite struggling at the 2014 World Cup, Euro 2016 and 2018 World Cup.

Poland manager Paulo Sousa on June 16, 2021© Reuters

Poland would have fancied their chances of opening their Group E challenge with a positive result on Monday evening, but Slovakia recorded a 2-1 victory in Russia to leave Paulo Sousa's side in a tough spot.

As it stands, they are bottom of the section and will be watching closely at what happens between Sweden and Slovakia when the two teams meet in the same group on Friday afternoon.

Poland's recent form has been disappointing, winning just one of their last eight matches in all competitions, including underwhelming draws with Russia and Iceland in their two pre-tournament friendlies.

The White and Reds know what it takes to advance to the latter stages of this competition, having been present in the quarter-finals at Euro 2016, and they will not be panicking as third position in Group E could be enough to see them book their spot in the first knockout round.

Poland have only won one of their previous 10 international games with Spain, though, losing eight times in the process, including a 6-0 defeat when the two nations last locked horns in June 2010.

Spain European Championship form:
  • D

Spain form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D

Poland European Championship form:
  • L

Poland form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L



Team News

Spain's Alvaro Morata in action against Sweden at Euro 2020 on June 14, 2021© Reuters

Spain will again be without the services of captain Busquets through coronavirus, but there is a chance that the Barcelona midfielder could return for the nation's final group game against Slovakia.

La Roja have no other concerns heading into the contest, and it will be fascinating to see whether Enrique decides to make changes from the goalless draw with Spain.

Morata seemingly has the full support of his manager, so should keep his spot in the final third of the field, but there might be a change in the middle of the park with Thiago Alcantara potentially replacing Pedri.

Gerard Moreno is also pushing for a spot in the starting XI, but it is likely that Enrique will again name Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres in the wide areas despite the number of options available in that area of the field.

As for Poland, there will have to be at least one change from the side that faced Slovakia, as Grzegorz Krychowiak is suspended due to the red card that he picked up in the second period.

Jakub Moder could be the player to come into the starting XI, although there is also the option of dropping Piotr Zielinski into a deeper area and handing a start to Karol Swiderski in the final third of the field.

There will once again be pressure on Robert Lewandowski to find the back of the net, with the Bayern Munich striker going in search of his 67th goal at international level, and the fact that he has scored 59 goals more than anyone else in the squad is an indication of how much they rely on him.

Spain possible starting lineup:
Simon; M Llorente, Laporte, P Torres, Alba; Koke, Rodri, Thiago; F Torres, Morata, Olmo

Poland possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Bereszynski, Glik, Bednarek; Jozwiak, Klich, Moder, Linetty, Rybus; Zielinski, Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: Spain 1-0 Poland

Poland's result against Slovakia potentially makes them even more dangerous for Spain, who have a lot to prove this summer; we are expecting a tight match between two sides that struggled going forward in their opening group matches but believe that Spain will emerge victorious in Seville.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 53.25%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Poland had a probability of 22.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (6.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Spain vs Poland

Spain
69.8%
Draw
15.2%
Poland
15.1%
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Spain players celebrate Mikel Oyarzabal's goal against Switzerland in the UEFA Nations League on October 10, 2020
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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