Aiming to secure a straightforward passage into the Europa League qualifying playoff round, Slovan Bratislava welcome Lincoln Red Imps to NFS - Tehelne Pole on Tuesday for the second leg of their third round tie.
The Slovakian champions boast a 3-1 advantage from the first leg in Gibraltar, during which Ezekiel Henty, Jaromir Zmrhal and Guram Kashia found the back of the net while Liam Walker claimed a consolation for Red Imps.
Match preview
Quickly bouncing back from seeing their Champions League dreams crushed against BSC Young Boys in the second qualifying round, Slovan Bratislava dusted themselves down to ease to a 3-1 victory in their Europa League third round qualifying first leg with Lincoln Red Imps on Thursday.
In front of a 637-strong crowd at the Victoria Stadium, Henty, Zmrhal and Kashia put Vladimir Weiss's men three goals to the good before the 70-minute mark, but Walker gave Red Imps a glimmer of hope with a penalty 17 minutes from time during an otherwise faultless evening from Bratislava.
Weiss's side have also opened their Fortuna Liga title defence with two wins from two, but they did not have a domestic encounter to contend with at the weekend as they endeavour to advance in Europe and take inspiration from the three previous Bratislava sides to reach the group stage of the Europa League.
After placing bottom of their continental group in the 2011-12 and 2014-15 editions, Bratislava's fortunes improved in the 2019-20 tournament as they beat Besiktas and held Braga to a draw in their opening two games, but they would proceed to lose their next four to finish third in the group behind Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Still, Bratislava's European pedigree has certainly shown signs of a steady rise in recent seasons, and they navigated all three of their competitive games in July at home without conceding a goal, winning twice and drawing the other encounter to Young Boys.
The Red Imps' own title defence is yet to commence, meaning that the 25-time Gibraltarian champions can harness all their energy into their European exploits, but they may be short-lived once more.
Having not become a UEFA member until 2013, Gibraltar's fledgling career in continental competition has seen the Red Imps often fall at the first or second hurdles of Champions League qualifying, and Cluj sent them packing 3-1 on aggregate in round two of Europe's elite tournament to see them drop down to the Europa League.
However, by reaching the third round of qualifying for the secondary competition, the Red Imps have already registered their best-ever finish in Europe, but they are facing the hilliest of battles to somehow make the playoff stage now.
Mike McElwee's side had strung together an eight-game unbeaten run on the road before going down 2-0 to Cluj last month, and whoever comes out on top in this two-legged affair will battle Ludogorets or Olympiacos for their right to enter the group stage.
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Team News
Bratislava remain without long-term cruciate ligament victim David Holman and left-back Lucas Lovat, but Alen Mustafic battled back from a minor issue to make the squad for the first leg.
With no league encounter in between their two European legs, it would not be a surprise to see Weiss send the same XI out onto the field at home, although Rafael Ratao and Joeri de Kamps are both pushing for recalls.
Meanwhile, Lincoln Red Imps will be able to call upon Ethan Britto for this tie after he served a suspension in the first leg, with Spanish winger Fernando Carralero's spot in the side most at risk.
On a more negative note, 38-year-old defender Roy Chipolina had to come off injured, and the Gibraltar captain's possible absence would leave McElwee short of options in the heart of defence.
Right-back Jack Sergeant could deputise alongside Bernardo Lopes at centre-back if Chipolina is ruled out, while forward Tjay de Barr has joined Wycombe Wanderers.
Slovan Bratislava possible starting lineup:
Chovan; Pauschek, Kashia, Bozhikov, De Marco; Weiss, Kankava, Rabiu, Zmrhal; Strelec, Henty
Lincoln Red Imps possible starting lineup:
Soler; Wiseman, Sergeant, Lopes, Toscano; Yayaha, Rosa; Walker, Araiza, Britto; K. Gomez
We say: Slovan Bratislava 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps (Bratislava win 5-1 on aggregate)
Slovan Bratislava's greater experience on the European stage quickly became evident in the sides' first-leg meeting, and we are struggling to see the Red Imps salvaging their continental journey here.
The Slovakian side will certainly face more of a fight in the playoff round against either Ludogorets or Olympiacos, but they should reach that stage with ease following a comfortable second-leg triumph.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovan Bratislava win with a probability of 44.66%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovan Bratislava win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
