Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (9.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.