A massive three points in the Eastern Conference playoff race will be on the line at Red Bull Arena on Saturday as CF Montreal make a short trip over to the Big Apple to face the New York Red Bulls.
New York saw their eight-match unbeaten run fall to DC United 1-0 in midweek, while Montreal have not lost in their last four games but are still on the outside of the playoff picture in ninth, a point back of the Red Bulls, who are eighth.
Match preview
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They got themselves back into a postseason position with several solid defensive outings, but all it took was one defeat, and as a result Gerhard Struber and his Red Bulls are back in the familiar position of chasing other teams for a spot in the top seven.
Despite having the bulk of the chances on Wednesday against the Black-and-Red, they could not solve the solid goalkeeping of veteran Bill Hamid.
Since a resounding 4-0 win over Inter Miami, this team have done just enough to get by on a game-by-game basis, winning four in a row by a single goal, collecting three straight clean sheets.
Given how poor they were over the summer months, you have to give Struber and his team a lot of credit for not abandoning their high-pressure system, and even though that has had mixed results offensively, their defensive shape has been spectacular.
They have not allowed more than three shots on target over their previous six encounters, including their defeat at DC United.
Coming into this match against their neighbours north of the border, New York have turned Red Bull Arena back into the fortress that opposing sides remember from years ago, going unbeaten in five consecutive affairs there, scoring one goal each time.
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Collecting points with the standings so tight can be extremely valuable, however losing extra points can be costly, as Montreal can attest to.
Wilfried Nancy saw his side sit back far too often after taking a second-half lead against Toronto FC in the Canadian Classique, conceding the equaliser in the 95th minute.
If they could have maintained their lead, they would have moved up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference, but instead the Quebecers are outside of the playoff bar in ninth, a point behind DC United.
This is a side built on a solid structure defensively that does an excellent job of interrupting their opponents' rhythm in the middle of the field.
That strategy has enabled them to keep pace in the majority of their games, although they have been passive in the attacking zone, firing only three shots on goal combined in their last two MLS fixtures, which quite simply is not going to cut it at this stage of the campaign.
With three games remaining and most of the other Eastern Conference sides winning, they might need to take a few more chances down the stretch and play to win instead of playing for a point.
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Team News
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Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has not conceded a goal in over 250 minutes played at Red Bull Arena, though his backline deserve a lot of credit for that, conceding only three shots on target in both of those fixtures.
The Red Bulls are a perfect 3-0-0 in matches this year where Dru Yearwood has played the full 90 minutes, but unfortunately, he was replaced by Youba Diarra in the 69th minute on Wednesday.
Aaron Long remains sidelined with an Achilles injury and Omir Fernandez has a hamstring problem, while Struber went with the same starting 11 earlier this week as he had in their previous match against the Columbus Crew.
After saving a penalty in sudden death, Montreal keeper Sebastian Breza put home his kick from the spot to send his side into the final of the Canadian Championship on Wednesday, beating Forge FC from the Canadian Premier League 8-7 in a shootout in the semi-finals.
Sunusi Ibrahim scored his first goal of the year for the Montrealers last weekend versus TFC, while Djordje Mihailovic has been by far their top playmaker, recording 13 assists on the season, the second-most in the league behind Carles Gil, who has 18.
Robert Thorkelsson is out with an adductor issue, their second-leading goalscorer Mason Toye has been hampered by a pain in his shoulder, Jean-Aniel Assi is dealing with a quadricep strain and their leading scorer Romell Quioto has hamstring issues.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Reyes, Nealis, Monzon; Royer, Davis, Yearwood, Duncan; Fabio, Klimala, Casseres
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Pantemis; Miller, Camacho, Bassong; Choiniere, Piette, Maciel, Brault-Guillard, Mihailovic; Torres, Ibrahim
We say: New York Red Bulls 1-1 CF Montreal
One goal is about as much as we can expect from these two sides, who have done a great job of limiting time and space to the opposition at the expense of creating a lot of quality scoring chances themselves.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 45.6%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 25.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.
