Championship

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Championship | Gameweek 45

Jul 18, 2020 at 3pm UK

Loftus Road Stadium

QPR
4 - 3
Millwall

Masterson (43'), Manning (52'), Eze (62'), Kane (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Smith (49'), Hutchinson (67'), Molumby (90+7')
Cooper (20')

Preview: Queens Park Rangers vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter | 16 July 2020

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Queens Park Rangers and Millwall, including team news and predicted lineups.

Promotion contenders Millwall travel to mid-table Queens Park Rangers this weekend in the penultimate round of Championship fixtures.

Millwall currently sit two points adrift of the top six as things stand, whereas QPR lie in 16th and have little to play for at this very late stage.

Match preview

QPR boss Mark Warburton on February 1, 2020 © Reuters

QPR are playing for nothing more than personal pride with two games remaining, although Mark Warburton's side are all but guaranteed to improve on last season's 19th-placed finish.

It is mathematically impossible for the Rs to be dragged into a relegation dogfight or mount a late charge for a playoff berth, so Warburton will no doubt want to use this time to assess where things went wrong for his team following the restart.

Indeed, QPR enjoyed a six-game unbeaten run in the second division before play was abruptly halted, but Warburton's side have only managed to pick up one win from seven since the Championship resumed.

The Rs were also held to a disappointing 1-1 draw by relegation candidates Luton Town on Tuesday, and the QPR faithful will be desperate to see their side end a three-game losing streak on familiar territory in their final home game of the season.

Millwall players celebrate Ryan Leonard's goal against Hull on July 11, 2020 © Reuters

In contrast, Millwall have enjoyed three victories from their last four in the second tier and their playoff hopes are still well and truly alive after 44 matches.

Indeed, Gary Rowett's men lie just two points behind sixth-placed Cardiff City and five behind Nottingham Forest - a remarkable achievement for a Millwall side that just about managed to stave off relegation last season.

The Lions have been helped by the indifferent form of Preston North End and Swansea City, but Millwall have not rested on their laurels and have taken full advantage of the situation in recent weeks.

Mason Bennett's first-half strike was enough for Millwall to take all three points against Blackburn Rovers last time out, and Rowett's men have two relatively friendly remaining fixtures to contend with against out-of-form QPR and Huddersfield Town sides.

Millwall will break into the top six with a victory if Cardiff City also lose this weekend, but the Bluebirds will still fancy their chances of maintaining their position in the playoffs with games against Middlesbrough and Hull City still to come.

QPR Championship form: LLWLLD

Millwall Championship form: DDWLWW

Team News

Queens Park Rangers forward Jordan Hugill celebrates scoring against Middlesbrough on July 5, 2020 © Reuters

QPR may have to make do without veteran defender Angel Rangel, who was stretchered off after just 11 minutes in the draw with Luton.

However, Warburton could have Jordan Hugill back in the frame for the visit of Millwall, and the Englishman is in contention start up top should he be deemed fit enough to play.

Millwall only have one injury concern to contend with in the form of Aiden O'Brien, as Rowett has an almost fully-fit squad at his disposal for their decisive remaining fixtures.

With the need to avoid any unnecessary risks but also to pick the strongest squad possible in the hope of clinching a playoff spot, Rowett is certainly in a quandary when it comes to team selection.

Jon Dadi Bodvarsson is pushing for a recall to the starting lineup after recovering from a knee injury, while Murray Wallace could feature on the left-hand side with Matt Smith up top.

QPR possible starting lineup:
Lumley; Masterson, Kakay, Barbet, Manning; Cameron, Ball; Samuel, Chair, Eze; Hugill

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Hutchinson, Pearce, Cooper; Romeo, Molumby, Leonard, M. Wallace; J. Wallace, Smith, Bodvarsson

We say: QPR 1-2 Millwall

Millwall know what is at stake here - anything other than a win and their promotion hopes may be dead and buried before the final day of the season. QPR have struggled for form recently, though, so we are backing Millwall to keep their playoff dream alive with a narrow victory on Saturday.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.