The Philadelphia Union will hope to gain some ground on the Eastern Conference-leading New England Revolution as their Major League Soccer season resumes on Wednesday at Subaru Park.
Philly earned their first win of the regular season last weekend, beating the lowly Chicago Fire 2-0, while the Revs suffered their first setback in 2021, losing 2-0 against Nashville.
Match preview
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After a tough start to their 2021 campaign, going winless in their opening two matches, it appears Jim Curtin has his side back on the right track.
The Union are coming off a solid week, advancing to the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League and beating Chicago in the Windy City on Saturday.
Over the past few seasons, Philadelphia have had their way with the Revolution, particularly in their regular-season encounters.
In 2020 they went unbeaten against New England in four regular-season games, although the Revs won the one that mattered most, beating Philly 2-0 in the first round of the playoffs.
You have to go back to 2017 for the last time the team from Greater Boston earned a regular-season win against Philadelphia.
Bruce Arena knows what it takes to succeed in this league, winning five MLS Cup titles as a manager and earning MLS Coach of the Year honours three times.
His experience has proved invaluable to the Revs, who have hit the ground running in 2021, with seven points from their first four matches.
A part of their early success comes from finding balance, specifically balanced scoring, as four different players have found the back of the net so far.
New England have not finished first in their conference since the 2005 campaign, but they are an early favourite to end that drought this season.
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Team News
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The Union will be without midfielder Jose Martinez after the league suspended him for his violent conduct against New York FC, where he was red-carded less than 20 minutes into the game.
Cory Burke, who scored his first goal of the season last weekend, needs two more to move into seventh place all-time in Union history.
Polish striker Kacper Przybylko scored three times to help Philly knock out Atlanta in the CONCACAF Champions League.
New England will be missing defensive midfielder Luis Caicedo with a leg injury, while Christian Mafla and Emmanuel Boateng are questionable with lower-body injuries.
The pairing of Andrew Farrell and Henry Kessler have been incredibly effective for the Revs, holding DC United to just one shot on target and shutting down a dynamic Atlanta attack.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Mbaizo, Glesnes, Elliot, Real; Bedoya, Flach, Monteiro; Fontana; Burke, Przybylko
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Farrell, Kessler, Jones; Maciel, Polster; Buchanan, Gil; Bunbury, Buksa
We say: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New England Revolution
The Union have had their way with New England at Subaru Park, going undefeated against them in their last six encounters, outscoring them by a margin of 17-2.
New England have vastly improved since then, but Philadelphia are growing in confidence after advancing to the Champions League semi-finals, and their star players are starting to come alive.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 48.95%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 26.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
