New England Revolution enter Sunday's clash with Charlotte FC in poor form, having lost their last five consecutive games in all competitions, which has left them in 13th spot in the Eastern Conference.
This weekend's visitors to the Gillette Stadium have began their new era in the MLS well, currently sitting fifth in the table after picking up nine points from their first seven games.
Match preview
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Bruce Arena's side suffered late disappointment last time out, when bottom-placed Inter Miami secured their first win of the season against New England to draw level on points with the Revs.
That was the second time this year that New England have been on the wrong end of a 3-2 scoreline, suggesting that their defensive capabilities are currently letting them down.
Their one win of the domestic campaign so far did come on home soil, something that this weekend's hosts will have to look to build on if they are to start climbing the table, and defend their first-placed finish in the Eastern Conference from last year.
Arena's team only tasted defeat on their own patch twice last season, but they have already equalled that tally in their first six games of this campaign, which looks set to be a more challenging one for the Revolution.
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In contrast, Charlotte have picked up their form after a difficult opening three games of the season, having won three of their last four outings, including a 1-0 win against Atlanta United last time out.
Jordy Alcivar found the back of the net after just 11 minutes last Sunday at the Bank of America Stadium, and despite their visitors creating many chances on goal, Alcivar's strike proved to be the difference between the two teams.
Miguel Angel Ramirez's side have lost all of their away matches, though, netting just one goal while conceding seven on their travels, which does not bode well for Sunday's outing.
Charlotte will be keen to gain their first points on the road, considering that their home record so far is good enough to mount a challenge for a top-seven finish come the end of the season, but they are sure to need a better away return.
This encounter is the second meeting between New England and Charlotte in quick succession, after this weekend's visitors secured a 3-1 win on their own patch in March, thanks to goals from Ben Bender and a brace from Karol Swiderski.
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Team News
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New England goalkeeper Matt Turner has not been involved this season due to a foot injury, and he will be absent again on Sunday, but could return to full fitness by the end of this month.
The hosts are expected to line up with a dual strike force including Justin Rennicks and Sebastian Lletget, with the latter moving higher up the pitch last time out in place of Jozy Altidore.
Arnor Ingvi Traustason could remain in New England's midfield, alongside Matt Polster, Thomas McNamara and Carles Gil, who will operate in the number 10 role.
Kamil Jozwiak and Vinicius Mello could make their debuts for Charlotte this month, but Sunday's outing has come too soon for the attacking pair to feature as they are still recovering from injury.
Midfielder Chris Hegardt managed to play a total of seven minutes across the first two games of the campaign before injury has ruled him out since then, and the 20-year-old is estimated to not be available for selection until June.
After a good win last time out against Atlanta, Ramirez is likely to field the same starting 11, meaning that Daniel Rios will lead the line with Swiderski, while Christian Fuchs and Guzman Corujo line up in the heart of defence.
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Knighton; Spaulding, Kessler, Farrell, Jones; McNamara, Polster, Traustason; Gil; Rennicks, Lletget
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Lindsey, Corujo, Fuchs, Mora; Bronico; Bender, Alcivar, Franco; Rios, Swiderski
We say: New England Revolution 0-1 Charlotte FC
Charlotte may have lost all three of their away game so far this season, but with New England in poor form ahead of this encounter, the visitors should fancy their chances of collecting maximum points.
The hosts are likely to make the game tight as their on home soil, but their confidence must be very low at the moment which could be a decisive factor in this weekend's result.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 70.19%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 12.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.31%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.
