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[monks data]
Netherlands national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 13, 2021 at 8pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
Ukraine national football team

Netherlands
3 - 2
Ukraine

Wijnaldum (52'), Weghorst (58'), Dumfries (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Yarmolenko (75'), Yaremchuk (79')
Sydorchuk (90+3')

Preview: Netherlands vs. Ukraine - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's European Championship clash between Netherlands and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Netherlands take on Ukraine in Group C of Euro 2020 at Amsterdam ArenA on Sunday.

These two nations will be expected to progress to the knockout stages, so this meeting could play a key part in determining which side tops the group.


Match preview

Netherlands' Wout Weghorst celebrates scoring on June 6, 2021© Reuters

Netherlands bounced back from a disappointing 2-2 draw with Scotland in their first warm-up friendly by comfortably dispatching Georgia 3-0 last weekend.

Memphis Depay, who bagged a brace against the Scots, continued his fine goalscoring form by converting from the penalty spot in the 10th minute. The Lyon forward scored six goals in his last six games of the season in Ligue 1, and will carry much of his country's attacking burden.

However, in Wout Weghorst, Depay appears to have a suitable strike partner. The Wolfsburg forward struck 20 times in the Bundesliga this season to help the Wolves qualify for the Champions League for the first time in five years, and the 6ft 6in striker finally opened his international account to double his side's lead against Georgia.

Nineteen-year-old Ryan Gravenberch added further gloss to the victory, with Frank de Boer surely tempted to start the teenager against Ukraine on Sunday. Should the Ajax midfielder receive enough game time throughout the tournament, he has the talent to establish himself as one of the young players of the tournament.

Ukraine's Roman Yaremchuk celebrates scoring on June 7, 2021© Reuters

Ukraine, meanwhile, won both of their warm-up friendlies against Northern Ireland and Cyprus without conceding a goal.

Andriy Shevchenko's side had not kept a clean sheet in any of their six prior outings, so the former AC Milan striker will be relieved that his defence appear to be building a solid platform ahead of the tournament.

Having impressively topped their qualifying group ahead of Portugal and Serbia, anything short of progressing to the knockout stages for the first time in a European Championship would have to be considered a serious failure given that Group C is widely perceived as the weakest group at this summer's tournament.

However, Ukraine have certainly not been handed an easy start with a trip to the Netherlands, so avoiding defeat may be seen as a positive step towards their primary aim of reaching the last 16.

Netherlands form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W

Ukraine form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Netherlands midfielder Donny van de Beek celebrates scoring against Spain on November 11, 2020© Reuters

De Boer suffered a major blow in the shape of Donny van de Beek's groin injury causing the Manchester United midfield to withdraw from the Netherlands squad, while goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen will not be involved either after testing positive for COVID-19.

Given that Netherlands are already without Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk due to the ACL injury he sustained against Everton last October, the spine of their team has been significantly weakened.

However, there is still plenty of talent remaining within their ranks, with De Boer seemingly intent on pairing Depay and Weghorst together in attack in a 3-5-2 system.

Gravenberch will compete with Marten de Roon for a place alongside Georginio Wijnaldum, who recently completed his switch to Paris Saint-Germain, and Frenkie De Jong in midfield, with the greater experience of the Atalanta man likely to see him win that battle.

In goal, 38-year-old Martin Stekelenburg could be preferred to Tim Krul after looking more secure in the recent friendlies.

Shevchenko, meanwhile, has a decision to make in terms of whether to match Netherlands' formation, or persist with the 4-3-3 system, which he has used more recently.

Given that the 44-year-old utilised a three-man defence in their three World Cup qualifiers in March, which helped them gain an impressive 1-1 draw against France, we are inclined to believe that Shevchenko may opt to approach this game in a more cautious manner.

That could mean the likes of Oleksandr Zubkov and West Ham United's Andriy Yarmolenko miss out, with danger man Ruslan Malinovskyi playing off Roman Yaremchuk in attack.

Manchester City's Oleksandr Zinchenko plays in his preferred midfield position for his country as opposed to left-back, where he is generally deployed for the English champions.

Netherlands possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Dumfries, De Ligt, De Vrij, Blind, Wijndal; De Roon, De Jong, Wijnaldum; Weghorst, Depay

Ukraine possible starting lineup:
Bushchan; Karavayev, Zabarnyi, Kryvtsov, Matviyenko, Mykolenko; Shaparenko, Sydorchuk, Zinchenko; Malinovskyi, Yaremchuk


SM words green background

We say: Netherlands 1-1 Ukraine

With both sides potentially deploying 3-5-2 formations, it is tough to envisage a classic at the Amsterdam ArenA on Sunday.

Ukraine's last three competitive matches have all ended 1-1, so it would be no surprise to see a repeat of that scoreline, which in truth may suit both nations with potentially easier matches in the group to come.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Ukraine had a probability of 13.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.23%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.84%), while for a Ukraine win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Netherlands vs Ukraine

Netherlands
70.0%
Draw
21.3%
Ukraine
8.7%
820
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Netherlands' Ryan Gravenberch celebrates scoring their third goal with teammates on June 6, 2021
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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