National League

Aug 2, 2020 at 3pm UK

Wembley Stadium

Harrogate
3 - 1
Notts County

Thomson (5'), Hall (28'), Diamond (70')
Hall (58'), Kerry (83')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Roberts (46')
Bagan (27'), Roberts (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's National League playoff final between Harrogate Town and Notts County, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Notts County win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.

Result
Harrogate Town	Draw	Notts County
46.4%	25.81%	27.79%

Both teams to score 51.66%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.95%

52.05%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.22%

73.78%

Harrogate Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.59%

22.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.07%

55.93%

Notts County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.59%

33.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.96%

70.04%

Score Analysis

Harrogate Town 46.4%

Notts County 27.79%

Draw 25.81%

Harrogate Town	Draw	Notts County
1-0 @ 11.2% 2-1 @ 9.18% 2-0 @ 8.38% 3-1 @ 4.58% 3-0 @ 4.18% 3-2 @ 2.51% 4-1 @ 1.71% 4-0 @ 1.56% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.17% Total : 46.4%	1-1 @ 12.27% 0-0 @ 7.49% 2-2 @ 5.03% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.81%	0-1 @ 8.21% 1-2 @ 6.73% 0-2 @ 4.5% 1-3 @ 2.46% 2-3 @ 1.84% 0-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 2.41% Total : 27.79%