Major League Soccer

Sep 11, 2022 at 12.30am UK

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta
4 - 2
Toronto

Sanchez (47', 62', 88'), Almada (74')
Hernandez (39'), Almada (45+1'), Mosquera (76'), Cisneros (90+3')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Akinola (52'), Bernardeschi (67' pen.)
Criscito (45+4'), Nelson (53'), Laryea (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Atlanta United and Toronto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atlanta United

Last Six:

Last Game: Portland 2-1 Atlanta
Sunday, September 4 at 10.30pm in Major League Soccer

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
8	Toronto	30	-6	34
9	Atlanta United	29	-4	33
10	Chicago Fire	29	-10	32

We said: Atlanta United 1-3 Toronto

Making the playoffs for both of these sides will be a long shot regardless of how this match ends up, though Toronto look consistently potent at the moment, showing a lot more quality in the final third than their opponents. Combine that with the off-field distractions plaguing Atlanta, and it is hard to envision them playing with the kind of focus you need in a match like this, not to mention trying to shut down an in form Toronto attack. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 56.19%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 21.99% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.

Result
Atlanta United	Draw	Toronto
56.19% ( 0.3)	21.83% ( -0.13)	21.99% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 58.66% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.04% (

0.38)

39.96% (

-0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.67% (

0.39)

62.32% (

-0.39)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.89% (

0.22)

14.11% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.26% (

0.43)

41.74% (

-0.43)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.29% (

0.06)

31.71% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.87% (

0.07)

68.13% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Atlanta United 56.19%

Toronto 21.99%

Draw 21.83%

Atlanta United	Draw	Toronto
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.15% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.26% Total : 56.19%	1-1 @ 10.06% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.83%	1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 21.99%