Melbourne City host Western United in the Australian A-League on Saturday morning as last season's beaten Grand Finalists look to bounce back from defeat.
Mark Rudan's men will be hoping to secure their first three points of the new campaign, but a trip to AAMI Park is about as tough a task as they will face all season.
Match preview
City started 2020-21 with a 1-0 victory away to Brisbane Roar despite Adrian Luna receiving a red card with over 20 minutes left to play.
They were unable to follow that result up when they travelled to Adelaide United after City fell to Tomi Juric's and Stefan Mauk's strikes once they were reduced to 10 men yet again.
Erick Mombaerts's side have a 100% record against their upcoming opponents, having won all four of their previous encounters.
The last time the two teams met was in the A-League semi-finals last year, which resulted in a convincing 2-0 victory for Melbourne City.
Mombaerts's men will be hoping to repeat that scoreline over the weekend and show their domestic rivals that last week's performance was merely a blip.
Western United were held to a 0-0 stalemate by Adelaide in their first game of the season and will be hoping to get on the scoresheet for the first time this time around.
Rudan's side have recruited well over the summer, bringing in Spanish duo Iker Guarrotxena and Victor Sanchez.
The pair should add some quality to the likes of Alessandro Diamanti. The former West Ham United midfielder bagged eight goals and provided seven assists in all competitions throughout 2019-20.
With the extra quality within their ranks, Western United supporters will be hoping their side can claim their first A-League title this time around.
Melbourne City Australian A-League form: WL
Western United Australian A-League form: D
Team News
Melbourne City will be without left-back Scott Jamieson after the defender picked up a red card last week.
Winger Andrew Nabbout is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury and is unavailable for the visit of Western United.
Rudan has a fully-fit squad to choose from and will be desperate to claim United's maiden victory over City at the weekend.
The Victoria-based outfit's new Spanish signing Guarrotxena has completed his quarantine period and could make his A-League debut this weekend.
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Glover; Marrone, Good, Griffiths, Garuccio; Tilio, O'Neill, Berenguer; Noone, Maclaren, Metcalfe
Western United possible starting lineup:
Kurto; Calver, Uskok, Imai; Pain, Lustica, Sanchez, Pierias; Diamanti, Berisha, Guarrotxena
We say: Melbourne City 2-1 Western United
Both of these two teams will have title aspirations this year, and with the talent of Sanchez and Guarrotxena added to Diamanti, there is no doubt that Western United have bolstered their squad over the summer.
Nevertheless, Melbourne remain the favourites, especially on home soil, and should have just enough quality to come away with the three points.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 50.59%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Western United had a probability of 24.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Western United win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
