Manchester City will be aiming to secure a first-leg advantage when they head to Portugal on Tuesday night to face Sporting Lisbon in the last-16 stage of the Champions League.
The Citizens topped Group A with 12 points to advance to this stage of the competition, while Sporting finished second in Group C behind Ajax, just beating Borussia Dortmund to a spot in the round of 16.
Match preview
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Sporting are present in the last-16 stage of the Champions League for the first time since the 2008-09 campaign, when they incredibly lost 12-1 on aggregate to Bayern Munich, and there is no question that they are the serious underdogs to advance from this two-legged affair with the English champions.
The Portuguese champions, as mentioned, finished second behind Ajax in Group C to advance to the knockout round of the competition, claiming nine points from their six matches, managing to book their spot in the last-16 stage of the tournament despite suffering three defeats in the section.
Sporting's standout result in the section was a 3-1 win over Dortmund at the end of November, and they will know that a positive result in the first leg is vital in order to stand a chance ahead of the second leg at the Etihad Stadium, which will take place on March 9.
Ruben Amorim's side will enter this match off the back of a 2-2 draw with Porto in the league on Friday, with five red cards being shown in the chaotic contest; the result left the Green and Whites in second spot in their domestic table, six points behind leaders Porto on the same number of matches.
The Lions have actually won seven of their last nine home European matches, while they beat Man City when the two sides locked horns in the last-16 stage of the Europa League back in 2012, triumphing on away goals following a 3-3 draw.
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Man City are viewed by many to be the favourites for this season's Champions League, but the Citizens were far from perfect in the group stage of the competition, losing two of their six matches; a record of 12 points was still enough to top the section, though, with Paris Saint-Germain finishing second.
Pep Guardiola's side will enter this match off the back of a 4-0 win over Norwich City in the Premier League on Saturday, which moved them 12 points clear of second-placed Liverpool at the summit.
Man City are also chasing success in the FA Cup, and indeed Champions League, and it will be fascinating to see what the reigning English champions can achieve during the 2021-22 campaign.
Guardiola's side, who lost to Chelsea in last season's European Cup final, have impressively won 13 of their last 20 away European matches, while they have been present in the last-16 of this competition in each of the last nine seasons, with the club now building a real pedigree at this level.
The Manchester giants suffered a 1-0 defeat when they last travelled to Sporting in the Europa League back in 2012, though, and were also beaten at PSG and RB Leipzig in the group stage of this season's competition, so Sporting will certainly believe that they can cause an upset on Tuesday night.
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Team News
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Sporting are hopeful that Pedro Goncalves, who has scored 13 times and registered nine assists in all competitions this season, will overcome a muscular problem to start Tuesday's contest.
There are not expected to be any surprises for the home side when it comes to their formation, with the team due to set up in a 3-4-3, with Paulinho operating at the tip of the attack despite competition from Islam Slimani.
Joao Palhinha should return in the middle of the park, having only been a substitute against Porto, but Pablo Sarabia and Matheus Reis will keep their spots, while Sebastian Coates will be a part of the back three despite being sent off in the team's last league match.
As for Man City, Kyle Walker will miss the game through suspension, which might open the door for John Stones to feature at right-back, although Joao Cancelo could also switch across, with Oleksandr Zinchenko keeping his spot at left-back.
Gabriel Jesus and Jack Grealish remain injury doubts for the Citizens, but Guardiola's side did not pick up any fresh issues during the win over Norwich on Saturday.
Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Aymeric Laporte and Joao Cancelo were all rested at the weekend but will be back in the side here, while Raheem Sterling, who netted three times against the Canaries, should start in a front three alongside Riyad Mahrez and Phil Foden.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Inacio, Coates, Feddal; Porro, Nunes, Palhinha, Reis; Sarabia, Paulinho, Goncalves
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Stones, Dias, Laporte, Cancelo; B Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Foden, Sterling
We say: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Manchester City
Man City will fancy their chances of securing a first-leg advantage on Tuesday evening, but Sporting deserve a lot of respect for their performances this season. The Portuguese giants should be able to get their name on the scoresheet, but we are expecting the Citizens to claim the victory in Lisbon.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.69%) and 2-3 (5.38%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
