Macarthur play host to Wellington Phoenix on Friday with the opportunity to move into third position in the A-League standings.
While the home side are on the brink of sealing their place in the Finals Series, the visitors must win and hope other results go their way in order to break into the top six.
Match preview
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Having spent the majority of their first-ever A-League campaign in the top six, Macarthur are now attempting to turn a good season into a history-making one.
Ante Milicic's side have prevailed in three of their last five fixtures to move to the brink of an appearance in the Finals Series, effectively putting them four games away from pulling off a monumental surprise.
Milicic will first want to get their game with Phoenix out of the way before contemplating future glory, but this team have lost just one of eight matches.
While just one clean sheet has been recorded during that period, Macarthur have found ways to remain in the majority of their matches and pick up valuable points.
Although he failed to score in their meetings with Central Coast Mariners and Western United, Matt Derbyshire has netted 14 goals for Bulls this season.
Earning a point against Phoenix will not be regarded as a foregone conclusion, with their next opponents unbeaten in 10 encounters.
Five victories and five draws have kept Ufuk Talay's team in with an outside chance of earning a spot in the Finals Series.
However, a number of results must go their way, and Talay will prefer to focus on his team's upcoming fixture rather than overthinking the permutations.
Talay has been left ruing Phoenix's failure to overcome Perth Glory at the weekend, the New-Zealand-based side blowing a 1-0 lead before eventually registering a 2-2 draw.
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Team News
Having made substitutions at regular intervals last time out, Milicic could make a number of alterations to his Macarthur XI.
While much will depend on the formation, Liam Rose, Antony Golec and Michael Ruhs all come in contention for a recall.
Despite preferring to keep with a settled Phoenix lineup, Talay may also bring in a couple of fresh faces.
Jaushua Sotirio and Ulises Davila could take the places of Reno Piscopo and Ben Waine respectively.
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Franjic, McGing, Susnjar, Golec; Martis, Milligan; Susaeta, M'Mombwa, Najjar; Derbyshire
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Sail; Fenton, Taylor, Payne, Sutton; Ball, Devlin, Lewis, Sotirio; Davila, Hemed
We say: Macarthur 2-1 Wellington Phoenix
On the back of putting together one of the longest unbeaten streaks in the division, Phoenix will feel confident in pushing for all three points from this fixture.
Nevertheless, we still expect Macarthur to take the chance to move into third spot, earning their fourth win in six in the process.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.42%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
