For the fourth time since the turn of the year, Central Coast Mariners and Macarthur prepare to lock horns at the Central Coast Stadium on Saturday.
The home team came out on top in each of the three previous meetings, including a 2-1 win at the Campbelltown Stadium on May 27.
Match preview
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Central Coast Mariners defeated Western United 2-0 in their final A-league regular season fixture on Saturday.
Goals in either half from Jack Clisby and Marco Urena helped secure third position on the log with 42 points from 26 games.
The Mariners now prepare for their first playoff appearance since the 2013/14 campaign, when they were beaten in the semi-final by Western Sydney Wanderers.
Saturday's hosts finished bottom in four of the next five seasons before the appointment of Alen Stajcic on a full-time basis in May 2019.
They finished with the third-best defence in the regular season and will bank on that solidity at the back for a deep run into the post-season.
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Macarthur FC ended their campaign with a 3-0 defeat against Wellington Phoenix on Friday.
David Ball, Tomer Hemed and Ben Waine were all on the scoresheet as Ante Milicic's men suffered a ninth defeat of the season.
The Bulls finished sixth in their debut season in the Australian top flight, but ended the season with only one win in the last four games.
Saturday's visitors also conceded the most goals of any team in the playoffs, which is an area that needs improvement if they are to excel at this level.
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Team News
Thirty-five-year-old Matt Simon is without a goal in his last four appearances for the hosts, which is his longest drought of the campaign.
Alongside Daniel De Silva, the duo have been responsible for three of the six goals scored by Central Coast Mariners against their visitors since the turn of the year.
Maximilien Balard is expected to come in for Gianni Stensness after the latter pulled up with a minor injury in his side's last outing.
Matt Derbyshire was involved in 19 of Macarthur's 33 goals during the regular season, making him their most influential player by a fair distance.
Loic Puyo will serve the first of a three-game suspension in this one after he was given his marching orders last time out.
Central Coast Mariners possible starting lineup:
Birighitti; Clisby, Rowles, Hall, Miller; Casella, Nisbet, Bouman, Balard; Kuol, Simon
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federechi; Meredith, Susnjar, McGing, Franjic; Milligan, Martis, M'Monbwa; Oar, Najjar, Ruhs
We say: Central Coast Mariners 2-0 Macarthur
The visitors have punched considerably above their weight since their promotion, but we are backing the hosts to emerge victorious in this one due to their level of experience at this stage.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%).
