The Vancouver Whitecaps head into their fourth match of this Major League Soccer campaign still searching for their first win, as they battle an undefeated side in Los Angeles FC on Sunday.
Dating back to last season, the Black-and-Gold are unbeaten in their previous three matches played at Banc of California Stadium, while the Whitecaps are winless in five straight road encounters, including their defeat at Sporting Kansas City in the 2021 MLS playoffs.
Match preview
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When you suffer through a losing season, as LA did last year, there is a ton of pressure to change the way you play and adopt new tactics and formations.
Instead of taking extreme measures, Steve Cherundolo has kept the blueprint that his predecessor Bob Bradley put in place during his tenure in LA, with the new boss traditionally lining up a possession shaped squad in a 4-3-3 formation.
The tactics may be similar, but so far the results this season are not, mainly because of the new faces who have made a positive impact early on, particularly in net, an area which was a huge liability in 2021 when they conceded 51 goals.
Since their opening fixture this year, LA have put forth an aggressive defensive style of play, with the second-highest possession percentage in the league after three games (57%), creating their fair share of turnovers.
A healthy Carlos Vela has done wonders for this team, as he has three goals in his opening three games and is thriving under Cherundolo, who has given him the freedom to attack more than in previous seasons.
Cherundolo has had the luxury of some exceptional individual talent, and it does not hurt to have a staff around him with plenty of MLS managerial experience, including his assistant Marc Dos Santos, who coached the Whitecaps for over two seasons before being dismissed in late August.
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The new manager bump, which we saw in Vancouver last year, seems to have faded away in the early portion of the 2022 campaign.
For whatever reason, Vanni Sartini has not been able to get the quality from his big players after three games, as his side are currently dead last in the Western Conference with only one point.
Vancouver got the start that they were hoping for last Saturday, going in front after 14 minutes to the Houston Dynamo, but they failed to maintain that early momentum, allowing too much space for Darwin Quintero, who punished them with a brace in a 2-1 win for Orange Crush.
The Caps were especially dangerous from set-pieces under Sartini last year, but they have not looked as threatening in that department this season, with their Italian boss calling on his players to provide better deliveries into the box.
At the beginning of this campaign, the Whitecaps midfielders were urged to move the ball quickly up the field in transition, something that we have not seen them do effectively after three matches.
The Whitecaps are a team with tremendous speed and skill from their wide players, and that is an area of the field that we have not seen them exploit so far, while the quality that we saw from their wingers last year has been few and far between at this point of the new season.
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Team News
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Maxime Crepeau will face his former team on Sunday after the Whitecaps team MVP in 2021 was traded to LA over the offseason, and the Canadian international is off to an excellent start with his new club, posting two clean sheets on the year.
Kwadwo Opoku scored the winner in their victory over Inter Miami last week, his first of the campaign to help the Black-and-Gold claim their second win of 2022.
Ismael Tajouri-Shradi made his LAFC debut, coming on as a second-half substitute to notch the insurance marker last weekend, and llie Sanchez continues to shine in midfield, being named to the MLS Team of the Week.
Eddie Segura has a right knee injury, Franco Escobar is questionable with a left calf issue, while the status of Erik Duenas and Diego Palacios remains up in the air as they are both recovering from left knee problems.
The Whitecaps made a pair of signings this week, adding goalkeeper Cody Cropper through to the rest of this season with an option for the next one and also agreeing to a contract extension for defender Tristan Blackmon until the 2023 campaign, with options to keep him for the following two years after that.
Caio Alexandre has a left foot injury, and Erik Godoy will not be available because of tightness in his left calf, while Jake Nerwinski sat out last week in the defeat to Houston, despite being eligible to return from his red card suspension.
Lucas Cavallini netted his first of the season for the Caps last weekend, the only goal this team has scored this year, while Cristian Dajome picked up his first assist on that play, putting him even with Ryan Gauld for the team lead and Brian White, who led them in goals last season continues to search for his first one in 2022.
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Hollingshead, Murillo, Henry, Moon-hwan; Acosta, Sanchez, Cifuentes; Rodriguez, Vela, Blessing
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Jungwirth, Veselinovic, Blackmon; Dajome, Owusu, Teibert, Brown; Gauld, Caicedo; Cavallini
We say: Los Angeles FC 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
The Whitecaps appear to have lost some of that confidence which made them such a formidable side down the stretch of last season, and finding a way through a revamped Black-and-Gold defence could be a challenge.
Your star players are paid to step up in the big moments, and those players have been huge for LA in the early going, while they have been non-existent for Vancouver.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 68.9%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 13.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.39%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
