Entertainment is to be expected on decision day in the MLS on Sunday, with the encounter between Los Angeles Galaxy and Minnesota United one of the ties at the centre of it.
The sides are two of the five in total that are fighting it out for the remaining three playoff spots in the Western Conference, with many different permutations depending on results here and elsewhere.
Match preview
© Reuters
The hosts head into this crucial clash nervous of potentially throwing away their playoff spot rather than 'earning' one should they prevail on Sunday.
Galaxy looked set to compete post-season as many as three months ago, but just 12 points have been picked up in their last 14 MLS fixtures, which leaves them clinging onto seventh position as things stand - the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Greg Vanney's side know that a win is required to guarantee their place, with only a draw requiring slip-ups from Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles FC.
A win in Seattle in the week would have sealed their spot and avoided the decision-day nerves, and Javier Hernandez's typical poacher's finish inside the opening 20 minutes put them in a strong position.
However, a clumsy challenge shortly after half time gave Seattle Sounders a penalty, which they converted and built on from there, and left Galaxy clinging on in the final stages as their hosts struck the woodwork on three separate occasions.
A solid defensive display ensured they picked up a vital point after a 1-1 draw, thanks to Hernandez's 15th goal in just 20 MLS appearances this campaign.
The experienced Mexican striker will be crucial to the hosts' chances on Sunday, as well as any potential success in the playoffs should they confirm their place.
© Reuters
As for Minnesota, their 2-1 victory over Sporting Kansas City last weekend put them on the verge of the post-season knockout stages.
After falling behind inside the opening eight minutes, United responded through the influential duo of Franco Fragapane and Emanuel Reynoso to turn the game on its head before half time.
The scoreline should have been extended further in order to reduce the nerves, but Adrian Heath's side managed to get themselves over the line eventually.
Unlike their hosts on Sunday, Minnesota do not need a win to confirm their playoff spot, due to sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference heading into decision day.
Being four points off Portland Timbers mean they can climb no higher and will have to settle for an away tie in round one of the playoffs should they proceed, but as a result of being three points above both Real Salt Lake and LAFC outside of the top seven, a draw is all that is required.
A defeat in Los Angeles is far from ideal, but Minnesota will confirm their spot if both Real Salt Lake and LAFC slip up in their respective fixtures, in what is a decision day full of various permutations for the five sides fighting for a playoff place.
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
The hosts do not have any confirmed absentees heading into Sunday's crucial fixture, although there are doubts over the availability of two players.
Jorge Villafana has been missing for over a month and although his return date is unclear, he is not expected to return for this one.
Sega Coulibaly failed to make the squad last time out against Seattle for unknown reasons, but Nick DePuy and Hernandez were welcome returns to the side in that one.
Meanwhile, the visitors have a near fully-fit squad available to choose from for their trip to Los Angeles.
Justin McMaster is the only confirmed absentee, with the forward being ruled out due to a thigh injury.
As a result, the key trio of Robin Lod, Reynoso and Fragapane should provide the creativity behind lone striker Adrien Hunou.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Araujo, DePuy, Williams, Hamalainen; Dos Santos, Raveloson; Grandsir, Vazquez, Cabral; Hernandez
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Metanire, Boxall, Dibassy, Gasper; Alonso, Trapp; Lod, Reynoso, Fragapane; Hunou
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Minnesota United
The hosts would usually be expected to win this tie due to the benefit of home advantage, but considering their poor run of form, we can see them slipping up again here.
Minnesota are not on an excellent run of form themselves but considering the importance of the occasion and the expected nerves in both camps, we can see this one turning out to be a cagey affair that ends in a draw.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 51.87%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
