Chapecoense will hope to climb out of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A basement on Monday when they travel to Estadio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude.
Juve are winless in their last four league fixtures, while Verdao have lost their previous five matches, and they have yet to win a single game this season.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a 13-year absence from top-flight football, it has been an up and down opening 12 games for Marquinhos Santos and his side in 2021.
With three wins and five defeats, they are in a precarious position, only three points above the relegation zone, but at the same time, one victory could bump them up to 10th with a bit of help.
Having lost their last three fixtures on the road, they will be more than thrilled to return to Caxias do Sul and their home fans, where they are unbeaten in their last four Serie A matches.
Four of their next five fixtures will be played on their home field, with two of those games being against teams below them in the table, so winning those matches could put them in a much more compromising position in the league.
They have not lost to any side who are currently below them in the table, so they will be full of confidence that they can turn around their current slide and move up the standings.
They have struggled in the final third all season, as they have been shut out of five matches this year, three of which have come on their current four-game slide.
© Reuters
While Juve seem to struggle with scoring, Chapecoense have struggled to prevent goals, as they lead the Brasileiro with 23 goals conceded and giving up at least one goal in all but one match so far this season.
After capturing the Serie B title in 2020, they are in danger of heading right back into the second tier of Brazilian football, with only four points from four draws as they are currently seven points back of Sao Paulo, who are the last team outside of the relegation zone.
Jair Ventura has seen his team fight hard throughout most of the season, losing five of their eight matches in this campaign by a single goal.
Lately, they have lacked that killer instinct to finish off an opponent, squandering the lead twice last weekend before falling 3-2 to Cuiaba and giving up two goals in four minutes to the defending champions Flamengo in the previous week after taking the lead in the second half.
Recently, this team have struggled late in matches, conceding nine of their last 11 goals in the second half and losing all five of those games.
Three of the four points which they have earned this year have come away from home, and they do not seem to have any problem scoring on the road with eight goals so far.
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Juventude will be without perhaps their top playmaker as Guilherme Castilho will be suspended after receiving a red card with just over 10 minutes to play in their 1-0 defeat last weekend to Internacional.
Marquinhos Santos made two changes to the starting 11 last weekend from the previous week, with Matheus Jesus and Paulinho starting instead of Jadson and Marcos Vinicios.
Striker Matheus Peixoto leads the team in goals with six, four of which have come on their home field, and goalkeeper Marcelo Carne is tied for second in the league with four clean sheets, just one back of the lead.
Chape are missing a couple of players who are still nursing long term injuries, including goalkeeper Vagner, who has a ruptured knee ligament, and Kaio, who has been out since August of last year due to inflammation of the biceps.
Pedro Perotti, Ignacio and Geuvanio lead the team in goals, each scoring two so far, although Perotti is the only one of those three to have found the back of the net in the month of July.
They made one change to the forward line last Sunday, with Geuvanio starting on the wing instead of Fabinho, as Anselmo Ramon held his position at centre-forward.
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Carne; Matheus, Forster, Mendes, Eltinho; Jadson, Jesus; Wagner, Wescley, Bruninho; Peixoto
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Ignacio, Santana, Derlan; Ribeiro, Felipe, Leite, Busanello; Mike, Ramon, Fernandinho
We say: Juventude 2-1 Chapecoense
Juve have thrived at home this year, and even though they are struggling to score, they are playing a side who have conceded four more goals than any other team in Serie A so far this year.
Verdao have fought hard and they might consider themselves unlucky to come away empty-handed so often, but they have not shown that they can maintain that high energy needed for 90 minutes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 43.29%. A win for Juventude had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Juventude win was 1-0 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
