Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 31.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Zambia in this match.
