Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Guinea had a probability of 29.3% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 2-1 (8.24%). The likeliest Guinea win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
