Inter Miami can match their longest winning run in franchise history when they host Atlanta United on Sunday in Major League Soccer action from DRV PNK Stadium.
The Herons have won back-to-back domestic fixtures, edging the Seattle Sounders 1-0 a week ago, while Atlanta were held goalless for a second straight league encounter, drawing 0-0 with FC Cincinnati.
Match preview
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Seemingly out of nowhere, Miami have turned their campaign around, winning three straight matches in all competitions, ending the lengthy unbeaten run of the Rave Green along the way.
Phil Neville insists that they need Gonzalo Higuain back in the fold to be successful this year, although their form would suggest otherwise, as they have beaten the reigning Supporters' Shield winners plus the finalists in this year's CONCACAF Champions League tournament in successive MLS games without the Argentine.
As the former Juventus striker continues to try to earn his place back into the squad, there is reason for cautious optimism in South Beach, particularly on the defensive side, with the Herons collecting two straight clean sheets in all competitions.
Neville has called their recent string of good results a continuation of the work required to be a strong side that know how to learn and grow.
To show more growth in the coming weeks, they will want to improve their defensive effort at home, allowing seven goals in their previous three matches played at DRV PNK Stadium.
Counting their final regular-season game in 2021, Miami have won three straight contests in all competitions when scoring first, while failing to concede in any of those fixtures.
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The 2022 campaign has gone from bad to worse for Gonzalo Pineda and the Five Stripes, who are winless in two straight MLS encounters.
Every team goes through injuries over an extended season, but what has happened weekly in Atlanta has been extremely unfortunate.
In an action-packed game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium versus the Orange and Blue, Atlanta created more scoring opportunities than in any previous encounter this year but failed to find the back of the net for the third time in this domestic campaign.
While we saw better ball movement from them last weekend, they still struggle to find that space in behind opposing defenders which could put them in better scoring positions.
Defensively, you cannot be any sharper than they were versus Cincy, conceding zero shots on target, but getting back in transition has been a trouble spot for them in 2022 as they have played their share of poor balls in dangerous areas that left them scrambling at the back.
They need to start making smarter decisions moving forward, as these players usually possess the ball more than their opponents over 90 minutes, though they have not been able to finish off a lot of that good build-up play.
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Team News
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Leonardo Campana scored the only goal for the Herons in their third-round U.S. Open Cup victory over Miami FC this week, his fourth in his last three games, while Robbie Robinson took an excellent feed from former Sounder DeAndre Yedlin last Saturday, scoring the only goal in their victory over Seattle.
On Tuesday, Damion Lowe received a red card in injury time at the U.S. Open Cup, and Drake Callender started in goal, replacing Nick Marsman as the 24-year-old stopped all three shots that he faced to collect the clean sheet.
Ian Fray is still out with an ACL problem, while Joevin Jones, Victor Ulloa, Ryan Sailor, Edison Azcona and Kieran Gibbs are all questionable with undisclosed injuries.
You can add Brad Guzan to the list of injuries for Atlanta as the veteran goalkeeper suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon, which means that Bobby Shuttleworth is likely to be the man in between the sticks this weekend.
Dylan Castanheira also has an Achilles issue, Machop Chol is nursing a leg injury, Josef Martinez has not recovered from his knee surgery, Emerson Hyndman is questionable with a torn ACL, while Matheus Rossetto and Luiz Araujo have injured hamstrings.
We saw a pair of new players in the opening lineup versus Cincinnati, as Caleb Wiley and Ronaldo Cisneros replaced Alan Franco and Dom Dwyer.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; McVey, Quinteros, Lowe, Yedlin; Gregore, Taylor, Duke; R. Robinson, Lassiter; Campana
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Lennon, Campbell, M. Robinson, Gutman; Ibarra, Sosa; Almada, Moreno, Araujo; Mulraney
We say: Inter Miami 2-0 Atlanta United
Both of these teams have taken their share of knocks, but Miami are the sharper side at the moment and have found ways to win without perhaps their best player in Higuain.
We expect to see Miami come out on top against an Atlanta team who are struggling to stay healthy or show that quality in the final third, while the Herons have a striker in Campana who is in fine form right now.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 41.68%. A win for Inter Miami had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Inter Miami win was 1-0 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Inter Miami would win this match.
