Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam will square off in the Eredivisie on Sunday afternoon knowing a victory will ensure that they remain in the top flight for another 12 months.
However, defeat for either side would leave them at risk of dropping into the second tier, Heracles through the relegation playoff and Sparta courtesy of the bottom two.
Match preview
Not so long ago, Sparta looked well on course for relegation from the top tier as they sat four points adrift of safety with six matches remaining.
However, a remarkable turnaround has put them on the brink of survival, Maurice Steijn overseeing a run of 10 points being collected from a possible 15.
Having defeated Groningen on away territory, Sparta backed up that 2-1 triumph with a 2-0 win at home to rivals PEC Zwolle on Wednesday, condemning their opponents to relegation.
Two goals inside the opening 24 minutes proved to be the difference, and De Kasteelheren will stay in the top flight if they can get the better of a team who are on an opposite trajectory.
Holding a two-point lead over Fortuna Sittard, Heracles will have one eye on how the 16th-placed team are faring against NEC Nijmegen throughout Sunday afternoon.
That comes after they suffered consecutive 2-0 defeats at the hands of Willem II and RKC Waalwijk, ending their hopes of a top-eight finish.
Frank Wormuth and his side will be disappointed with the recent slump, particularly as they at one stage looked like improving on last season's ninth place.
Nevertheless, retaining their top-flight status for another season will represent success of sorts, when they have not posted back-to-back victories since the start of October.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
Team News
Heracles will remain without Anas Ouahim and Sven Sonnenberg who are both serving suspensions for red cards.
Despite suffering defeat last time out, Wormuth may keep changes down to a minimum unless he decides to hand a first league start of the season to youngster Sem Scheperman.
Steijn will take the same approach with his Sparta team, potentially opting to name the side which breezed past PEC Zwolle.
Tom Beugelsdijk replaced veteran Adil Auassar at half time of that fixture, leaving it unclear who will get the nod at the weekend.
Despite being yet to complete 90 minutes in an Eredivisie game this season, Younes Namli should remain on the left flank.
Heracles possible starting lineup:
Bucker; Fadiga, Rente, Hoogma, Knoester, Quagliata; Schoofs, Hansson, Torre; Laursen, Bakis
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Vriends, Auassar, Meijers; Kamps; Crooij, Verschueren, Mijnans, Namli; Thy
We say: Heracles 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam
In what will no doubt be a nerve-wracking experience for both clubs, do not expect the most action-packed game that you have ever seen. Much will depend on how Fortuna Sittard are faring elsewhere, but the most likely result is a low-scoring draw, a result which would benefit Heracles more so than Sparta.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 22.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
