The bottom two in the Campeonato Brasileiro standings meet on Tuesday, as Gremio host winless Chapecoense in Porto Alegre.
Though Luiz Felipe Scolari's side progressed to the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals last week, they have struggled to get going in the league, while their visitors languish at the foot of the table following seven successive defeats.
Match preview
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Despite defeat at title challengers Bragantino last time out in the league, relative to their sluggish start to the 2021 Serie A season, Gremio have seen their fortunes improve of late.
Since they hit a low ebb when crashing out of the Copa Sudamericana on away goals to LDU Quito last month, 'Big Phil' Scolari took charge of his old club for a fourth time, and the Porto Alegre side have certainly perked up.
Following a draw with city rivals Internacional and a rare win over Fluminense, the Tricolor have made the final eight of the cup - beating Vitoria 4-0 on aggregate by winning home and away - and they now prepare for a crucial clash with promoted Chapecoense, who they remain unbeaten against in four encounters since 2017.
Nevertheless, after another failure to ripple the net last week, Gremio have registered the fewest goals in the Brazilian top flight so far this season - finding the net just six times, at a rate of just one every other game.
Even at this relatively early stage of the campaign, such a lack of potency leaves Scolari's men in serious trouble, and a season-long fight against the drop is in prospect should they fail to improve matters in the final third.
They will also have to cope without star midfielder Matheus Henrique for the rest of the year, too, as the 23-year-old is set to replace Euro 2020-winner Manuel Locatelli at Italian side Sassuolo.
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Though Gremio have often struggled to trouble the scorers, when making the long trip from Santa Catarina this week, Chapecoense will themselves be seeking to end a nightmare start to the 2021 campaign.
After claiming the Serie B title last season, O Verdao have been finding life back in the top flight particularly challenging, and are yet to win a league game. In fact, Jair Ventura's side have not picked up a victory in any competition since beating Serie D opposition in the Copa do Brasil at the start of June.
Currently marooned at the foot of the Serie A standings on four points - already nine adrift of safety - and having conceded the most goals in the division, Ventura has his hands full in attempting to keep a confidence-sapped team in the elite.
A 1-0 defeat at home to Santos last time out - despite firing in 20 shots on the visitors' goal - was Chape's seventh successive loss, so this week's clash with 19th-placed Gremio already seems like a must-win affair.
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Team News
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Gremio are expecting midfielder Matheus Henrique to complete a move to Italy in the coming days, after he returns from Brazil's triumphant trip to the Tokyo Olympics, so should continue with Darlan Mendes and Lucas Silva in their engine room on Tuesday. Goalkeeper Brenno Costa was also helping the Selecao go for gold in Japan, so will once again be absent.
In addition, Luiz Felipe Scolari will have Diego Souza (thigh), Ferreira (knee), Maicon (calf) and veteran full-back Rafinha (muscular) all sidelined due to injury, while Argentinian centre-back Walter Kannemann is also a doubt, so Paulo Miranda and Pedro Geromel could start in defence.
Though Chapecoense lost again last week, they have tightened things up at the back since switching to a back four, so Jair Ventura is expected to retain the same system at Arena do Gremio.
However, he will be without Felipe Santana, Joilson and Vagner this week, and midfielder Alan is currently quarantining due to COVID-19 infection.
Up front for the visitors will be either Pedro Perotti or Anselmo Ramon, with the former being Chape's joint-top scorer on just two goals.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Miranda, Geromel, Tressoldi; Alisson, Vanderson, Silva, Mendes, Leo; Pyerre; Ricardinho
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Ribeiro, Kadu, Derlan, Busanello; Ribeiro, Leite, Lima; Fernandinho, Perotti, Fabinho
We say: Gremio 1-0 Chapecoense
A flurry of goals is not to be expected when these two sides meet, though Chapecoense have been so defensively vulnerable that even goal-shy Gremio can find a way to snatch the three points and prolong the visitors' agony.
Given their stature, the home side really should be doing better, and Luiz Felipe Scolari's nous and experience can help them edge this game and stay in touch with the clubs above them.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 55.59%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.22%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
