Two sides battling in the bottom half of the La Liga table will square off on Sunday, as Granada play host to Rayo Vallecano.
The hosts put some crucial distance between themselves and the relegation zone with a win before the international break, while their visitors have experienced a quick fall down the division.
Match preview
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Granada experienced a dismal run of form in recent months, dropping down to 17th and only leading the relegation zone by one point as they went 10 league games without a victory between the beginning of January and mid-March.
That run included seven defeats and saw them sit on a concerning tally of 25 points from 28 outings, but the Nazaries were able to finally post a first win of the calendar year to stop their rot before the international break.
In his second game as interim manager, following the departure of Robert Moreno, Ruben Torrecilla took them to fellow strugglers Alaves, and, after a dramatic encounter, they left with a vital 3-2 victory.
Gonzalo Escalante and Manu Vallejo put their hosts 2-1 up after Sergio Escudero's opener, but Antonio Puertas drew the Nazaries back level before Luis Suarez netted the decisive goal in the 87th minute.
That saw Granada leapfrog Mallorca and move up to 16th place, but, with just a two-point lead over the bottom three, they know they have much more work to do if they are to maintain their top-flight status.
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They welcome a Rayo Vallecano side who have seen a dramatic drop down the table in recent months after an eye-catching start to the campaign.
Following their promotion back to the top flight last season, Rayo Vallecano put themselves in and around the top six with 30 points from their opening 18 league games by the end of December.
The turn of the year has acted as a major turning point for Andoni Iraola's side, though, as they have failed to pick up a win in 2022, losing eight of their 10 matches and drawing the other two.
A six-game losing run between late January and early March was a particular low point, before they were at least able to force a commendable draw with second-placed Sevilla, only to fall to Atletico Madrid in the final game prior to the break.
While their strong start has given Rayo Vallecano a big head start in the fight for survival, their lead over the bottom three has been cut down to six points, and their position would certainly be put in further jeopardy if they were to suffer a defeat to a side placed below them at the weekend.
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Team News
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Granada are without goalkeeper Aaron Escandell due to a suspension, although that will not affect their starting XI as he was shown a red card while on the bench.
More alarmingly, Carlos Neva, Angel Montoro and Santiago Arias are all set to miss out due to injuries alongside key midfielder Maxime Gonalons.
Torrecilla should, at least, be able to field a relatively unchanged side from the one that defeated Alaves, although Antonio Puertas and Luis Suarez will both be pushing for starts after scoring off the bench in that game.
Rayo Vallecano also have a suspension to deal with, as key attacking midfielder Oscar Trejo will watch from the sidelines after being shown a fifth yellow card of the season last time out.
Veteran forward Radamel Falcao will also continue to miss out through injury, with the Colombian having struggled for goals recently after a prolific start to the season.
Instead, Sergi Guardiola will lead the line, while Mamadou Sylla and Isi Palazon and Randy Nteka will all be pushing for starting berths in the attacking unit.
Granada possible starting lineup:
Maximiano; Quini, Duarte, Escudero, Sanchez, Diaz; Collado, Petrovic, Milla; Molina, Suarez
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Balliu, Suarez, Catena, F Garcia; Ciss, Comesana; Sylla, Nteka, F Garcia; Guardiola
We say: Granada 2-1 Rayo Vallecano
Granada come in with far more momentum in the race for survival, and we back them to take all three points on home turf against a side who are yet to secure a league win in 2022.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for Granada had a probability of 33.62% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Granada win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
