With one side pursuing European ambitions and the other scrapping for survival, seventh-placed Fiorentina meet relegation-threatened Venezia on Saturday.
The teams convene at Stadio Artemio Franchi having endured vastly differing fortunes of late, as the Viola have won three of their last four, while the Venetians suffered a sixth straight defeat last weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Adding to their victory in the Derby dell'Arno at the start of April, a remarkable season for Fiorentina reached a new high last Sunday, as they returned from Naples with all three points from one of their toughest assignments so far.
After consigning Tuscan rivals Empoli to a 1-0 defeat through Nicolas Gonzalez's goal a week beforehand, the Viola again took the lead through the Argentinian winger, and despite conceding just before the hour mark, further strikes from substitute Jonathan Ikone - who scored within moments of his arrival - and Arthur Cabral ultimately sealed victory at Stadio Maradona.
As a result, Vincenzo Italiano's men have now won five of their last eight league matches, a period during which they have added 17 points to their tally - fewer only than fellow form side Roma (18) in Serie A. Indeed, they are now 23 points better off than they were at this stage last season.
Fiorentina sit seventh in the standings - two points behind Lazio in the final European qualification spot, but with a game in hand - and are also in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, in which they also won away to Napoli at the start of the year.
With eight different goalscorers across those two clashes at the Maradona, no team has scored more in Serie A through signings made in the winter transfer window than the Viola, as Cabral and Ikone joined Krzysztof Piatek in replacing Capocannoniere contender Dusan Vlahovic, who departed for Juventus.
Their aspirations of returning to continental football will be tempered, however, by an upcoming fixture list that pits them against Milan, Roma and old foes Juve, the latter of whom they not only meet in the second leg of the Coppa semis but also in a potentially explosive final day fixture in Florence.
© Reuters
Following a heartbreaking stoppage-time loss to Udinese last week, Venezia have now gone 11 matches without recording a home win, but one of their two league victories at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this season came against Fiorentina back in October.
The last time the Lagunari won both Serie A fixtures against the Viola was as long ago as the 1941-42 season, but they are in acute need of pulling off such a feat on Saturday, with time running out to retain their top-flight status.
Currently sitting three points adrift of safety, but with a game in hand on most of their survival rivals, Paolo Zanetti's side have now lost each of their last six league games; the last time they endured a worse streak within a single Serie A season was in 1966-67.
Having initially made a decent fist of adapting to the demands of the elite level since their promotion through the playoffs last year, the Arancioneroverdi have picked up just five points during 2022 - only Rayo Vallecano stand below them in that regard across the top five European leagues.
In all, one victory from 18 attempts leaves Venezia in dire trouble, and in that spell they have scored only 14 goals. French forward Thomas Henry has been directly involved in seven, including three of their last four, but his supporting cast - assembled from far and wide as part of a scattergun transfer policy - have failed to perform.
- L
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Though his teammates coped admirably in his absence in the 3-2 win against Napoli, a return from suspension sees Lucas Torreira back in contention for a place in Fiorentina's midfield trio.
Another engine room regular, Giacomo Bonaventura, has been struggling with a knee problem and could miss out again for the home side, while Alvaro Odriozola may not be involved either; requiring Lorenzo Venuti to deputise on the right side of defence.
Nicolas Gonzalez has been directly involved in the most goals for the Viola in the second half of the season (2 goals, 3 assists), and is also the player with the most assist this term in total, with six. He will join a host of options for Vincenzo Italiano to choose from, in support of either Arthur Cabral or Krzysztof Piatek up front.
After spilling a point for the second successive match during stoppage time, Paolo Zanetti could make some changes to his ailing Venezia team, and the enforced absence of Ethan Amapdu due to suspension should see either Antonio Vacca or Luca Fiordilino recalled to the side.
Third-choice goalkeeper Niki Maenpaa continues between the posts, as both Sergio Romero and Luca Lezzerini remain sidelined by injury, while Mattia Aramu will hope to feature in the front three and make his 100th appearance for the club.
Having scored in the reverse fixture in Venice, the last time the former Italy Under-21 international found the net away from home was in the Serie B playoffs last May, and he has failed to find the net at all in 2022.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Venuti, Igor, Milenkovic, Biraghi; Castrovilli, Torreira, Maleh; Ikone, Cabral, Gonzalez
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Maenpaa; Mateju, Caldara, Ceccaroni, Haps; Busio, Fiordilino, Crnigoj; Aramu, Henry, Okereke
We say: Fiorentina 2-0 Venezia
There has not been a single draw in the last 15 Serie A fixtures between these sides - 10 wins for Fiorentina; five for Venezia - and a first since March 1947 is not on the cards this weekend.
Contrasting the Viola's ability to find goals from all over their squad with visitors who are only just into double figures for away goals this term, it is clear who should emerge with maximum points at the Franchi.
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 76.46%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 7.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.04%) and 3-0 (11.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.4%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (3.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
