With just six points left to play for, Nacional travel to Famalicao on Sunday knowing that they need two victories to stand a chance of breaking out of the bottom two of the Primeira Liga table.
The visitors find themselves at the foot of the table with two games to go, sitting five points behind Boavista in the relegation playoff place and six points adrift of automatic safety.
Match preview
Famalicao come into this game on the back of consecutive impressive victories, most recently defeating sixth-placed Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 away from home.
The hosts took an early lead through Bruno Duarte, but Bozhidar Kraev equalised in the first half before Heriberto Tavares popped up with a late winner to seal all three points for Fama.
That followed another narrow victory for Ivo Vieira's side, as they picked up a 1-0 win at home to seventh-placed Santa Clara.
The game remained goalless for the majority, despite the visitors playing with 10 men after Nene's red card in the 35th minute, but Fama eventually broke the deadlock in the final 10 minutes, as Ivo Rodrigues made no mistake in converting a penalty to secure the three points.
Vieira was brought into the club at the beginning of March with the side sat in the automatic drop zone, but he has quickly managed to change their fortunes with five wins and 18 points from his first 10 games in charge.
As a result, they have quickly moved away from the threat of relegation, now occupying 10th spot with the chance to finish in the top half if they continue their good form going into the final two games of the campaign.
They take on a Nacional side who require a victory to potentially keep their survival hopes alive on Sunday.
A run of 10 consecutive league defeats over the course of February, March and April saw Os Alvinegros drop from a seemingly comfortable mid-table position to the foot of the Primeira Liga table, and they look set to fall back down to the second tier after promotion last season.
While they did recently break that run with a 1-0 victory over Vitoria de Guimaraes, Manuel Machado's side have been unable to sustain an improved survival bid, having picked up just four points from the four games since that losing run.
The Madeira side find themselves isolated at the bottom of the table as a result, now sitting five points behind Boavista in the relegation playoff place and six points behind 15th-placed Rio Ave, although Os Nacionalistas would also need a huge swing in goal difference if they are to escape the bottom three altogether.
While it is out of their hands and their relegation could be sealed on Saturday depending on other results, Machado's side will battle to win their last two games to give themselves the slightest chance of avoiding the automatic drop.
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Team News
Famalicao should remain without Bruno Jordao and Leonardo Campana through injury, after they continued spells on the sidelines last time out.
They will also be without centre-back Diogo Queiros, who will miss out through suspension after he was shown his fifth yellow card of the season in the recent victory over Vitoria.
Meanwhile, important midfielder Gustavo Assuncao could be brought back into the side after a spell on the bench, while winger Heriberto Tavares will hope that his winning goal last time out is enough to earn him a start on Sunday.
Machado should opt to go with an attacking system, given Nacional's need for a victory.
That could again see Pedro Mendes and Brayan Riascos lead the line with the support of Eber Bessa and the wide threat posed by wing-backs Ruben Freitas and Joao Vigario.
They still have a long injury list to contend with, as Vincent Thill, Marco Matias, Joao Camacho and Chico Ramos should all miss out again.
Famalicao possible starting lineup:
Junior; Figueiras, Riccieli, Babic, Vinagre; Ugarte, Assuncao; Rodrigues, Kraev, Tavares; Guedes
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Filipe; Henrique, Cesar, Kal; Freitas, Alhassan, Azouni, Vigario; Bessa; Riascos, Mendes
We say: Famalicao 2-1 Nacional
Although Nacional come into this game needing a win, we see them falling short against a Famalicao side who have improved hugely under Ivo Vieira.
The hosts will be pushing for a top-half finish, and we expect them to get past the basement side who will definitely battle hard but could lack quality.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 49.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
