Exeter City and Northampton Town square off in Monday's League Two playoff final having both pulled off comeback victories in the semi-finals.
While Exeter rallied to overcome Colchester United after extra time, Northampton recovered from a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Cheltenham Town to earn their spot at Wembley Stadium.
Match preview
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Heading into their respective second legs on Monday evening, Exeter and Northampton were the clear outsiders to progress through to the final after losing out in their first game back in action.
While Exeter had home advantage, many expected Colchester to hold onto a 1-0 lead, while Cheltenham effectively had one foot in the final after prevailing by a 2-0 scoreline at Northampton.
However, after the surprising turn of events at St James' Park and Whaddon Road, we now have a final between two clubs who will not be short of confidence ahead of their visit to North London.
Despite ending the regular season in fourth and seventh place, neither side went into the enforced break having produced the kind of form which would normally be associated with teams of that standing.
Exeter had gone four games without success before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, a run which had been extended to five before their 3-1 success on Monday.
Meanwhile, Northampton had suffered five defeats in seven outings before producing arguably their best performance of the season in thrashing Cheltenham on away territory.
On the back of first-leg setbacks, Matt Taylor and Keith Curle had spoken confidently about the chances of their respective teams, and such comments had the desired effect.
In terms of the head-to-head record this season, both clubs have recorded a win apiece, most recently in the case of Northampton, who registered a 2-0 triumph at Sixfields on February 22.
However, despite that result, the Cobblers ended the campaign seven points adrift of their upcoming opponents, a statistic which further suggests that two evenly-matched group of players will be taking to the pitch at the national stadium.
Exeter City League Two form: LDDLLW
Northampton Town League Two form: WLWLLW
Team News
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The return of Sam Hoskins after suspension proved crucial for Northampton during the second leg, and the club's top goalscorer will continue in midfield on Monday night.
Barring any late fitness issues, Curle should name the same starting lineup, which would see him retain a frontline of Vadaine Oliver and Callum Morton.
Like his opposite number, Taylor will be against making any unnecessary alterations with his players having had a week to prepare for the contest.
However, Nigel Atangana made a positive impact off the substitutes' bench against Colchester, and it will provide the Frenchman with hope that he will be handed a recall for this game.
Even if he can shake off a calf problem, Lee Martin is unlikely to be risked from the start.
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Maxted; Sweeney, Martin, Moxey; Williams, Taylor, Law, Collins, Richardson; Fisher, Bowman
Northampton Town possible starting lineup:
Arnold; Goode, Turnbull, Wharton; Harriman, McCormack, Watson, Hoskins, Adams; Oliver, Morton
We say: Exeter City 1-2 Northampton Town
Given the level of their performances on Monday night, this is a difficult match to call. Pushed to make a prediction, we must back Northampton, who can only be brimming with confidence after returning to form in such clinical fashion.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.99%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
