Norwich City host Everton at Carrow Road on Wednesday evening knowing that time is running out for them to pull off the great escape they need to avoid relegation.
The Canaries were soundly beaten by Southampton in their first match back after lockdown, whereas Everton returned with a goalless draw against Liverpool in the Merseyside derby.
Match preview
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Many fans will have gone into the first game back after lockdown with a sense of anticipation and excitement akin to the opening day of a new Premier League season.
It took 90 minutes for that excitement to subside for Norwich, whose 3-0 home defeat at the hands of Southampton on Friday evening nudged them ever closer to what seems to be an increasingly inevitable relegation.
All of the goals came within 30 second-half minutes as the Canaries collapsed, making it five defeats and just one win in their last seven Premier League outings.
While beginning to pick up more points is clearly the sole objective over the remainder of the campaign, Daniel Farke will be particularly worried about his side's goalscoring troubles during that poor spell of form.
Norwich have scored only one goal in their last six Premier League games, have the worst conversion rate in the division and, after the weekend, are out on their own as the league's lowest scorers overall too.
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Indeed, Norwich have only scored two or more goals in six league games all season, one of which came in the reverse fixture at Goodison Park when Farke's side picked up their only away win of the campaign.
A lot has changed at Everton since then, most notably the arrival of world-renowned manager Carlo Ancelotti as a replacement for the sacked Marco Silva, and they have begun to climb the table again as a result of that.
One thing which remains the same is that the Toffees are still waiting for a Merseyside derby win, although they came about as close as they have for the last decade during Sunday's goalless draw at Goodison.
Everton became only the third Premier League team to take points off Liverpool this season but may have felt that they should have had three rather than one, having missed the best chances of an otherwise uneventful affair late on.
The draw did not do much for Everton's outside chances of qualifying for Europe, although of the teams above them in the table but outside the top four, only Wolverhampton Wanderers and Crystal Palace won at the weekend.
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The Toffees remain 12th in the standings and are now without a win in their last four league games which, for all of their apparent improvement under Ancelotti, is their joint-longest winless streak of the campaign.
It is away from home that Everton have had the most trouble this term; they have won just one of their last six on the road across all competitions and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 14 in the league - a run which stretches back to their very first away game of the season.
Indeed, only Aston Villa have shipped more goals on their travels in 2019-20, so Norwich's struggles in front of goal will come as welcome news to Ancelotti and co.
Despite that defensive record, Everton will be favourites to come out on top at Carrow Road for the first time since October 2004, having failed to win any of their last four visits.
Norwich Premier League form: DLLWLL
Norwich form (all competitions): LLWWLL
Everton Premier League form: WWLDLD
Team News
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Norwich should have Marco Stiepermann back available after he returned to training last week following a positive coronavirus test.
However, Farke confirmed ahead of the Southampton match that Grant Hanley, Christoph Zimmermann and Sam Byram will all miss the remainder of the season.
Everton also have fitness concerns, with as many as six players expected to miss Wednesday's game through injury.
Yerry Mina and Theo Walcott will not be back in action until next month, while Djibril Sidibe missed the Merseyside derby due to a knock and may not recover in time to feature in this game due to the quick three-day turnaround.
Cenk Tosun and Jean-Philippe Gbamin remain long-term absentees, while Fabian Delph is also expected to miss out due to a muscular problem.
Ancelotti handed youngster Anthony Gordon his Premier League debut in the derby, but he could be replaced by the more experienced Gylfi Sigurdsson for this contest.
Norwich possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Godfrey, Klose, Lewis; Buendia, McLean, Trybull, Cantwell; Pukki, Drmic
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Coleman, Keane, Holgate, Digne; Iwobi, Davies, Gomes, Sigurdsson; Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison
We say: Norwich 0-2 Everton
Norwich appear to be slipping closer and closer to the exit door of the Premier League and, while Everton are also on a winless run of their own, they should enough quality to see the hosts off at Carrow Road.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 43.1%. A win for Norwich City had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Norwich City win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.
